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Wednesday, April 29, 2015

Final mock draft

The playing around is pretty much over. It’s time to put up or shut up – or at the very least get this draft completed before another prospect his arrested for something stupid.

For the sake of sanity, I’m not putting any trades into this draft that already have not taken place. This doesn’t mean that I don’t think there will be any deals made. In fact, I expect quite a few this year as teams position themselves to get the guys they want.

Anyway, without any further ado, here we go.

1. Tampa Bay, Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State – This pick has been locked in since the combine.

2. Tennessee, Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon – I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Titans make this pick and then deal Mariota later.

3. Jacksonville, Dante Fowler, OLB, Florida – The Jaguars need pass rushers. Leonard Williams would fit, but Fowler will give Gus Bradley the kind of edge rusher he covets.

4. Oakland, Leonard Williams, DT, USC – Amari Cooper would make sense as well, but the Raiders can add a receiver later. Williams is a game changer.

5.  Washington, Vic Beasley, OLB, Clemson – Beasley steps in and replaces Brian Orakpo. Brandon Scherff would make sense here too, but it’s a little too early.

6.   N.Y. Jets, Alvin Dupree, DE, Kentucky – The Jets would love to get their hands on Winston or Mariota. Perhaps they make this move and dangle Dupree and something else for Mariota.

7.   Chicago, Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama – It’s no secret that since Brandon Marshall was dealt that the Bears will be looking at wide receivers.

8.   Atlanta, Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia – With Fowler, Beasley and Dupree gone, the Falcons go get Steven Jackson’s replacement in Gurley.

9.   N.Y. Giants, Brandon Scherff, OT, Iowa – I’ve felt pretty good about this being Scherff’s landing spot for a while now.

10.   St. Louis, La’el Collins. OT, LSU – The Rams got Greg Robinson last year, now they get his bookend.

11.   Minnesota, Trae Waynes, CB,  Michigan State – When you play in the same division as Green Bay, Detroit and Chicago, you’d better have corners who can cover.

12.   Cleveland, Kevin White, West Virginia – It’s hard to believe White falls this far, but here he is. He would be tough for Cleveland to pass on.

13.   New Orleans, Randy Gregory, OLB, Nebraska – The Saints are in desperate need of pass rushers.

14.   Miami, DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville – The Dolphins would have loved to get their hands on Gurley and it’s too early for Melvin Gordon, so they go for a dynamic playmaker.

15.   San Francisco, Marcus Peters, CB, Washington – Perrish Cox and Chris Culliver are gone and the 49ers should have more info than anyone on the Peters, an Oakland native.

16.   Houston, Arik Armstead, DE, Oregon – The Texans could use an inside linebacker, but it’s too early for that. Armstead gives them an end to line up opposite J.J. Watt.

17.   San Diego, Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin – An easy choice for the Chargers, who need an every-down runner.

18.   Kansas City, Andrus Peat, OT, Stanford – Eric Fisher is still a work in progress at LT. If he fails on the left side, Peat would give them another option. And can start on the right side right away.

19.   Cleveland, Danny Shelton, DT, Washington – Getting White and Shelton would be a heck of a haul for the Browns.

20.   Philadelphia, Kevin Johnson, CB, Wake Forest – The top three corners and top four OLB prospects are now off the board for the Steelers.

21.   Cincinnati, Ereck Flowers, OT, Miami (Fla.) – Andrew Whitworth will turn 34 this year. Flowers plays with a nasty edge.

22.   Pittsburgh, Byron Jones, CB, UConn – With the top three corners off the board, the Steelers choice in this mock comes down to Jones, talented-but-troubled Shane Ray or Landon Collins. Collins would be tempting as a box safety, and Ray is a top-15 talent who drops because of a toe injury and an issue with marijuana. Jones, meanwhile, is a high-character player who tested off the charts at the combine, including setting a world record in the standing long jump. Oh, and he can play as well, though he was limited to seven games in 2014 with a shoulder injury.

23.   Detroit, Malcom Brown, DT, Texas – The losses of Suh and Fairley in the middle will be made up for by the additions of Brown and Haloti Ngata.

24.   Arizona, Cameron Erving, C, Florida State – Bruce Arians saw what adding a top-notch center did in Pittsburgh when Maurkice Pouncey was brought in.

25.   Carolina, D.J. Humphries, OT, Florida – Offensive line picks aren’t sexy, but they are necessary. And Carolina needs help on its line in the worst way.

26.   Baltimore, Phillip Dorsett, WR, Miami (Fla.) – Having lost their speed receiver, Torrey Smith, the Ravens need for speed at WR is obvious.
27.   Dallas, Shane Ray, OLB, Missouri – If there’s a team that doesn’t mind troubled players, it’s the Cowboys. I’m not convinced Ray is a truly bad guy. Smoking some marijuana is not the character strike it used to be. That toe injury, though, is troubling.

28.   Denver, Jake Fisher, OT, Oregon – The Broncos have to protect Peyton Manning, who is as mobile as the Lincoln Memorial at this stage in his career, not that he ever moved around great to begin with.

29.   Indianapolis, Landon Collins, S, Alabama – Winston Guy is currently Indianapolis’ starting strong safety. Nobody outside of Guy’s family knows who he is.

30.   Green Bay, Eric Kendricks, LB, UCLA – Brad Jones and A.J. Hawk are gone. Kendricks is a bit on the small side, but he makes every tackle.

31.   New Orleans, Nelson Aghlor, WR, USC – Agholor doesn’t have the size of some of the other top receivers, but he’s silky smooth.

32.   New England, Eric Rowe, CB/S, Utah – Rowe’s size and speed are off the charts. He has suspect hands, but he’s the kind of hybrid player the Patriots love.

56 comments:

Zeke R said...

Nice draft Dale, I could nick pick a little like the 49ers passing on a corner due to other needs up front but overall I would be pleased with this pick.

Anonymous said...

Dang Dale pretty dark outlook with the top 3 corners and top 4 OLBs off the board already. I hope you're off on this one but I fear you're on it.

datruth4life said...

Dale, call me a gambler, but I take Shane Ray at 22. Many feel he's the 2nd best pass rusher in this draft. The Steelers attended his pro day and Tomlin and Colbert had dinner with him the night before. He wouldn't be there at 22 if not for the moronic decision to have pot in his vehicle three days before the draft or his toe injury, who noted physician Dr. Bob Anderson said does not need surgery. Ray is a top 5 pick with a high motor and natural pass rush ability.
Another possibility that I like at 22, though who isn't a sexy pick, is DT/DE/NT Eddie Goldman from FSU. He is an underclassman and is a 3-down DL. I think with he, Heyward, Tuitt, McClendon and McCullers, you have the makings of a very strong DL for the future. I think an emphasis needs to be placed on the Steelers being better in its nickle D, particularly against the run, and Goldman would help with that.
If CB is the selection in the first round, then I like OO in the 2nd round or Nate Orchard.

datruth4life said...

And another plus with drafting Goldman is that you can cut horrid Cam Thomas and save the team $2M going forward. You can pay Goldman his rookie salary as well as sign a FA DL like Alex Carrington for the minimum and still come out ahead in that scenario.

marc said...

goldman pick would be just fine with me.

Patrick said...

Kevin johnson will be the pick, Eli Harold in the second and it's pretty obvious tre mcbride is this years "no chance the steelers don't come away with him" pick

Joe Jones said...

Dale,

I agree that Jones is their dude if they go CB.

I'm still rolling with my Shane Ray, Dupree or Beasley options in that order.

If they go B-Jones, I'd like Kikaha or like yal think, Shane Ray rnd 2.

Maybe this will be my version of the Martavis Bryant/Dri Archer situation and Ray is there rnd 2, but I want him rnd 1 at 22.

Joe Jones said...

I meant yinz, not yal.

Dale Lolley said...

If Johnson is there, I would take him. But I don't think he will be

Joe Jones said...

Same could have been said about T.Y. Hilton.

I agree we need a KR tho.

Patrick said...

I think Philly goes Jones over Johnson

Anonymous said...

If Trae Waynes is there after Miami picks, do we try to trade up to get him? Assume Peters and Johnson are still on the board.

datruth4life said...

Dale, I think I still have to go Shane Ray at pick no. 22. Pass rushers don't grow on trees and he would not be here if it weren't for the medical issue (of which he's been cleared by the best foot surgeon in the country) and the pot citation. If you think you have the leadership in-house to help him, then pull the trigger and go CB in Round 2 and 4. I'm still reserving my round 3 pick for WR Tre McBride. I think he's going to be a impact player next year for the Steelers on returns and in the slot.

datruth4life said...

Ideally, maybe the Steelers can move back a few picks and still come away with Jones, Ray or Goldman and still pick up an extra 3rd & 6th pick.

Joe Jones said...

Agreed. I could see Jones going as early Minnesota, should Waynes be off the board when they pick.

Qwikdoc said...

Unless the league softens its stance on marijuana, I would hesitate to take either Shane Ray or Randy Gregory if they are available at 22. Dion Jordan has given the Dolphins nothing for taking him in the first round. The Steelers can't afford that happening to them now. They need to build a Steeleresque defense over the next two years so they can focus on getting another franchise QB after that. Ray is too much of a risk.

Henigin said...

My call: Malcolm Brown in the first round, CB and OLB in the second/third, not necessarily in that order. I think the Steelers are nuts if they burn a 3rd round pick on a WR at this point. Receivers are almost literally growing on trees now, and they need to get better on defense quickly.

Marc said...

datruth,
I'm leaning to them sliding back (only if there is a willing partner of course) because I see a group of qualified players being available and the benefit of additional picks in a deep draft for defensive players.

I also think it is unnecessary to take a WR in the 3rd. would rather see a TE actually, if available.

Eric T said...

Ideally (at least to me) a team like Oak or TB sees a run on OT and decides to move up to 22 to grab one before to late, giving the Steelers a 2nd & 3rd.

Seems like quantity of picks would be better than quality in a weaker draft.

LexingtonLegend said...

Why do so many people want ray? He's got potential toe problems and is unquestionably a moron.

Zeke R said...

I would hate to see us move back if Ray is avail, that is if the brass has done their homework and really liked the kid during their one on one. If they thought he was flawed then grab Jones and call it a night.. I just think Ray has the talent that doesn't grow on tree's. Look back to Randy Moss and all the trouble before the draft and the chance that Minn took on him, but on the other side you have Gordon with the Browns.
Have to trust the brass on this one..

Zeke R said...

Lex,
It's been reported the "toe" doesn't need surgery, and the kid has a motor!!

emac2 said...

I like Jones a lot but think I prefer Peters if he drops.

Humphries, Fisher and Erving are all interesting as well.

I like what is shaping up to be the bottom of round one.

I have Gurley at 3 and Peat at 5

Eric T said...

While you have wonder about his judgement, my biggest issue with Ray (Gregory as well) is his lack of size. I don't think he will be able to hold up to the run. We already have one underwhelming undersized 1st round OLB on the roster.

datruth4life said...

Marc, I am hoping Dallas gets anxious and wants to move up in the draft to select a RB (Gurley or M. Gordon) or a S (Collins) at pick no. 22. If the Steelers move down to 27, the team could pick up an extra 3rd and 6th round pick and probably still have their choice of:

CB/S Byron Jones, LB Shane Ray, NT/DT E. Goldman, or CB/S E. Rowe.

Jerry Jones can't help himself from trading up or down in the first round. Having 2 3rd's would mean you'd have a great shot at a impact CB and WR. With all that being said, I still like Shane Ray at 22 or 27. He could be one of the answers to the Steelers pass rush problems.

datruth4life said...

Eric T., I think the size thing is more of an issue with Gregory than Ray. Ray is already 6'3, 249 lbs. In 2 to 3 years, you're going to have a 6'3'', 260 lbs. OLB in Ray with an elite first step. Many teams have Gregory showing up for pre-draft visits at 230 lbs, and that is on a 6'5'' frame. No to Gregory. I'm rolling the dice on Ray. When it comes down to it, the decision might be out of the hands of Tomlin and Colbert. Maybe Dan Rooney will step in and say no to any of the pot smokers with a no. 1 pick.

datruth4life said...

Zeke R., Ray has been given the go-ahead from the best foot surgeon in the country. As Charlie Casserly said, when Dr. Anderson gives you a thumps-up, that's as close to God as you're going to get in a prognosis. Is Shane Ray, arguably, the 2nd best pure pass rusher in this draft, worthy of the Steelers pick at 22 despite the team's need at CB?I say yes.

Marc said...

I agree, that would be ideal.

Zeke R said...

Datruth,
I was responding to Lex, I'm aware of the nonissue with the Toe.. We stand side x side with Ray.. I want him in black n gold..

Marc said...

datruth,
not that the draft value chart is set in stone, but I don't think your dallas scenario works out. a 3rd and 6th from dallas would be too expensive for the cowboys to move up 5 spots. not to mention they don't have a 6th round pick this year.

Noel said...

I have a quibble with mock drafts when it comes to picks like Miami's here where it's deemed too early for a certain player. Your draft round won't make a lick of difference on the field; if Gordon helps the team the most he will be the pick, case closed. I'd be horrified to think the Steelers picked a guy based on "draft value" vs. greatest potential for the team.

Rant aside, I'm hoping for two things out of this draft: 1. I'd love to see them trade down and acquire extra picks. 2. I really believe the second and third round corners will be as good as any chosen in the first. I really hope they wait. Taking two in the first four rounds would be great but picking any of them in the first doesn't seem like BPA at a position of need in my opinion.

Dale Lolley said...

Parker will be a top-20 pick. That's not a reach for Miami.

I initially had Ray as the pick and then changed it right before I posted. I'm torn on this as some of you are. While society is softening its stance on marijuana, the NFL has not yet done so. And getting pulled over with a big bag right before the draft isn't very smart.

I don't see them taking a defensive lineman in the first, Henigan. Too many other holes to fill. And they're fine with their top five.



Zeke R said...

Since we have a few hours to kill before the draft starts, I thought I would throw this out there..
The Steelers are on the clock, Peters and Ray are still on the board.... Times ticking by, which character flaw do you pick? The guy that got kicked out of school because of his attitude or the guy that can't seem to put the sticky stuff down?

Qwikdoc said...

I pick the guy who got kicked off the team (school?). He will likely have a more stable and professional coaching staff at the pro level and can be mentored by established pros older than him.
The guy with the affinity for reefer who exhibited the unbelievably moronic behavior of carrying the illegal substance in his car a few days before he is guaranteed millions of dollars if he doesn't get caught with the illegal narcotic, is way too big of a risk. The league will not show mercy when he tests positive for marijuana or gets pulled over and has the goodies in his vehicle. The end result will be suspensions and lack of productivity due to not being on the field either in games or practice (see Dion Jordan,Josh Gordon, etc...)and likely out of the league in a few years. Besides that, if he is idiot enough to risk getting caught three days before the draft, what makes anyone think he is smart enough to be successful in the NFL?

Tom said...

If all the DB's and pass rushers that the Steelers like are gone by pick 22 how likely is it that the Steelers would just settle and take Jaelen Strong? I think Tomlin is still bitter about being so right about/not having the opportunity to draft Odell Beckham Jr. last year. Maybe Strong rustles Tomlin's jimmies in similar ways. Strong could play slot and the. You lowball Wheaton on an extension and if he bites then fine, if not let him walk and you pay your studs: AB, Martavis in 3 years, and Strong rollin on a rookie contract. This team has to cut corners because I am betting they plan on paying Decastro. Unless the cap goes WAY up the next five years you just simply can't afford to pay everyone market value.

datruth4life said...

Zeke R, considering the things that Gregory, Ray and L. Collins are facing, I think M. Peters temper tantrums & hot-headedness can be forgiven. I still think if Ray has a really good lawyer, he can beat the marijuana citation. He cited a lapse in judgment during his release, but he never said anything about being sorry to be pulled over with Mary Jane in the car. What is the bigger act of stupidity for Gregory or Ray: to have failed numerous tests for MJ at your school and to test positive at the combine or to have failed a test for MJ during your freshman year and then be caught with a bag 3 days before the draft?

datruth4life said...

Tom, I think if the Steelers are looking at another position other than OLB or CB in the first round, I think it should be DT/DE/NT with E. Goldman. He fits the Steelers prototype to a T - coming out as a junior, coming out of a big-time program, has been productive and has the physical skills for his position to someday dominate. I watched several FSU games this past year and he was always the best player on the field for the Seminoles, not Jameis Winston. He's a 3-down DL on a position of need for this team. In fact, they might be able to move down a few positions in the draft and still land him. I'd rather they take him at no. 22 than reach on a CB like Byron Jones. However, if you gave me my pick of CBs this draft, I'd take Peters. Like his physical style and attitude he brings to the field. He's a player that I wouldn't mind going into M&T Bank stadium with in late December in a game against the hated Ravens. Shane Ray is that type of player also.

Zeke R said...

I agree with you to a point, then Blount comes to mind.. I didn't like him smoking grass with bell before getting on the plane but I REALLY didn't like him walking out on the team..
Peters will get us a lot more 15 yard personal fouls for his temper than a guy that can beat hitting the pipe with a little leadership from a vet and some counseling

Zeke R said...

Also, he never said it was his, I know I know but I'm just saying. Maybe his mom has glaucoma and he was getting the stash for her.. :)

datruth4life said...

Zeke R., how about a friend left it in the car he was driving from the night before? All an attorney has to do is create a reasonable doubt. It's a citation, not an arrest. As for Peters, Tomlin said he always would rather have a player that he'd have to say 'Whoa, easy," than constantly say "Sick'em!" Well, with Peters, he don't have to worry about lighting a fire under him or getting him revved up to play.

Zeke R said...

If a coach has to tell a player "Sick'em" in the NFL, well.... I would say that player doesn't need to be on a 53 man roster..

Dale Lolley said...

In that scenario, I'm taking Ray. A top-10 player who drops because of a lapse. Now, he also has the toe issue, which is troubling. But if that checked out, I'm in.

Zeke R said...

Let's do this!!

Zeke R said...

Here we go, let's go Ray!!!

Zeke R said...

Humm

Noel said...

Well, he does have the size and speed for what they do. If I wasn't sold before put me down for having faith in Porter and Butler to make the tape match the skills.

Zeke R said...

I think Rsy would of been s better pick, I hope I'm wrong.

BlackNGold said...

So Jones weak side and Dupree strong side since he has the size to set the edge against the run.

LexingtonLegend said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Theosa said...

A Great Pick!! I'm glad they skipped Ray, how smart is he to burn one just before the draft? I would question his decision making in general.

LexingtonLegend said...

I know you guys don't like it but I'm fine with it. I saw Dupree quite a bit here. Quality guy and a play maker in the sec, granted on a bad sec team but against great talent. I've never heard a bad thing about the guy and he's a hard worker. I think you get Porter & Deebo in the same room with him and he'll get even bigger and better. I really figured CB for the first pick.

His tackle numbers were up and down. He had 91 tackles his sophomore season and that dipped down after a new coaching regime came in.

Homegrown Misanthropist said...

Wouldn't it be great if their last 3 first round picks performed next year, would be a huge burst to the teams expectations.

Zeke R said...

I just don't like his motor, Den got the guy and was the smart team. I pray I'm wrong but Ray was the pick unless the brass was scared about his toe. In that case, I feel a lot better.

Zeke R said...

Did Dupree even come in for a visit? I didn't see him on the list, so much for us picking first off the list of guys that Haida visit. Yes, I'm bitter lol

LexingtonLegend said...

Tomlin and others went to his pro day.

Joe Jones said...

Overall yes, but he's nothing against the run. We already have a weak side LB in Jones.
You'd be replacing Jones with Ray rather than replacing current Harrison with Bud.

I love it. Never thought Bud would be there.