With the draft a little over two weeks away, here's my latest mock.
1. Tampa Bay, Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State - No change at the top.
2. N.Y. Jets (trade with Tennessee) Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon - The Jets can see all the rumors about others moving up for Mariota and make the move themselves.
3. Jacksonville, Dante Fowler, OLB/DE, Florida - The Jaguars haven't had much of a pass rush in forever. Fowler could give them one.
4. Oakland, Leonard Williams, DT, USC - The Raiders aren't dumb enough to screw this up, are they?
5. Washington, Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama - Washington could use playmakers pretty much across the board.
6. Tennessee (from N.Y. Jets), Kevin White, WR, West Virginia - The Titans could go defensive tackle, but White is a dynamic playmaker.
7. Chicago, DaVante Parker, WR, Louisville - A run on receivers? Yep, it could happen this year.
8. Atlanta, Randy Gregory, LB, Nebraska - The Falcons can just line Gregory up and let him chase quarterbacks.
9. N.Y. Giants, Brandon Scherff, OT, Iowa - A pick that stays the same from my previous mock. It just makes too much sense.
10. St. Louis, Andrus Peat, OT, Stanford - In the NFC West, you must protect the quarterback.
11. Minnesota, Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State - With Parker off the board, the Vikings go defense.
12. Cleveland, Danny Shelton, NT, Washington - There are concerns about Shelton's long-term ability to hold up given his weight, but Cleveland needs a run stuffer.
13. New Orleans, Vic Beasley, LB, Clemson - The Saints need help just about everywhere after turning their roster over.
14. Miami, Breshad Perriman, WR, Central Florida - His 40-time opened some eyes for teams that didn't realize he was that fast.
15. San Francisco, Marcus Peters, CB, Washington - The 49ers take a chance on the local kid.
16. Houston, Alvin Dupree, OLB, Kentucky - The Texans envision pairing Dupree with last year's first round pick Jadaveon Clowney.
17. San Diego, Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia - Gurley is a playmaker, but he's coming off a serious knee injury.
18. Kansas City, Shane Ray, OLB, Missouri - The Chiefs take the local star to eventually replace aging Tamba Hali opposite Justin Houston.
19. Cleveland (from Buffalo), La'el Collins, OT, LSU - The Browns need to improve at right tackle and Joe Thomas isn't getting any younger.
20. Philadelphia, Arik Armstead, DT, Oregon - The Eagles land the massive defensive lineman who Chip Kelly recruited.
21. Cincinnati, Ereck Flowers, OT, Miami (Fla.) - The Bengals get a guy who can step in and play on their line right away.
22. Pittsburgh, Kevin Johnson, CB, Wake Forest - It all just keeps coming back to Johnson for the Steelers, who haven't taken a corner in the first round since 1997.
23. Detroit, Malcom Brown, DT, Texas - The Lions need to replenish up front.
24. Arizona, Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin. This just makes too much sense if he's on the board.
25. Carolina, D.J. Humphries, OT, Florida - T.J. Clemmings might be the better player long-term, but Humphries is more polished now.
26. Baltimore, Byron Jones. CB, UConn - A freakish athlete, but can he play? The Ravens think yes.
27. Dallas, Jordan Phillips, DT, Oklahoma - Jerry Jones loves him some Oklahoma players.
28. Denver, Cameron Erving, C/G, Florida State - Erving is polished and can help the Broncos now.
29. Indianapolis, Landon Collins, S, Alabama - The Colts pump up their run defense, but can Collins cover anyone?
30. Green Bay, Jalen Collins, CB, LSU - The Packers overlook the fact that Collins started just 10 games in college.
31. New Orleans, Eric Rowe, CB/S, Utah - Is he a corner or safety? The Saints need help all over and can afford to see which it is.
32. New England, Dorial Green-Beckham, WR, Oklahoma - He's got character issues, but that's never bothered Bill Belichick.
Cleveland's run defense was decent enough. They played a ton of nickel/dime last year because they couldn't defend the pass when in a base defense. But their base D only gave up 3.73 ypc versus the run. Compared to the 5.11 ypc they gave up on the ground while in packages. And their base D gave up 7.24 ypp against the pass, to 5.29 ypp while in packages. Which is likely why they chose to spend 64% of their time in packages, in spite of opponents only passing on them 55% of the time. They weren't all that concerned with being out of balance against the run. If anything, it suggests they were baiting teams to run on them instead of passing. And why not? Better to give up 5.11 on the ground against your nickel than 7.24 in the air against your base, if they were more in balance with run/pass ratios. Not all that significant in total yards, but could be all the difference in a couple of dozen extra stalled drives on the season. They were pretty good on 3rd downs.
ReplyDeleteIf they do want to fix their run defense, they have to get better in packages. Those guys aren't space eaters, and those are a dying breed in today's NFL anyways. Shelton is plenty athletic and plenty big, but what is ain't is mobile. Damn near inert. He has no value outside a base 34 NT, and as such of little to no use/answer whatsoever to Cleveland and their problems. Which obviously doesn't necessarily rule Shelton out. It is Cleveland afterall.
Great mock Dale. It will be interesting to see how this draft plays out, but after watching Baltimore's pass rush destroy the Steelers tackles, I'm wondering if L. Collins, Clemmings, Humphries, or Peat may be the pick if they are on the board. So much will depend what the teams between 5 and 21 are valuing on the their board. Many of these guys in the first round seem to be about the same level of talent.
ReplyDeleteOne thing about Johnson, whether he's my preferred pick or not, is he's been linked to them and scouted by them for so long and has so many ties through his coaches and Tomlin that they've had plenty of time to put in the due diligence. If he is their choice I'm quite satisfied with the amount of forethought. Of course I always trust that that's been done but it's very noticeable in his case.
ReplyDeleteIs that a comfort or a fright?
ReplyDeleteThe Ravens were able to pin their ears back because they had no respect for Pittsburgh's run game. That didn't happen when Bell played.
ReplyDeleteMock Schedule 2.0
ReplyDelete@ NE
Cin
Ind
@ KC
@ Cle
Ari
@ SD
--BYE WEEK--
@ Cin
Bal
@ St L
Den
Cle
SF
@ Sea
Oak
@ Bal
I agree Bell's injury made it almost impossible to defend the pass but the idea of another season where a Beacham injury has us an inch from forfeit would be poor planning.
ReplyDeleteIf we can draft a plug and play LT I don't think you can draft a CB unless you are convinced they can start from day one or are going to be a shut down corner.
DGB is another player it might be hard to pass up. I can't draft a question at CB in the first round when players like Humphreys and DGB are on the board.
I wouldn't draft Green-Beckham if he were the only player in this draft. I would have less of a problem with Marcus Peters than DGB. Dude got caught with a pound of weed, meaning he was dealing it. This after a previous arrest.
ReplyDeleteLet him be someone else's problem. I can see him being another Justin Blackmon.
It's a team sport. Maybe he likes to share. He should make enough to quit dealing after the draft anyway. :)
ReplyDeleteLooking at some recent mocks maybe Peters in the first and DGB in the 2nd....?
I agree with the risk but is the risk of a great player being fatally stupid greater then the risk of a great athlete never learning to play at an NFL level?
I can't say I know the answer with the players in question but I think DGB is a virtual lock to make an impact unless he's banned from the league. Most of these corners seem more likely to fail on ability then he does from bad judgement.
As much as I want a CB, after Waynes and Peters they all seem somewhat even through the end of round 2. I would probably take Peters but move to OL after those two are gone.
I know we don't need a WR but DGB solves the redzone issue from day one. Strong or the other WR's at 22 don't.
Erving is someone I would think a lot about drafting.
We don't need a WR untill at least the 4th round, probably not untill the 6th.
ReplyDeleteIf the Steelers think TJ Clemmings can be dominate LT in time, then look for them to grab him. They are never in position to get a player like that, but this could be the draft it is possible. He is a dominate run blocker with arm length and feet to play on the edge. However he is a projection, which may allow for him to drop to 22. Beachum is good and I'm a fan, but he would be an option at RT or G also, and has nowhere near the ceiling of Clemmings.
ReplyDelete1. Clemmings
2. Preston Smith/Nate Orchard
3. Sammie Coats
4. Steven Nelson/Alex Carter/Doran Grant
5. David Cobb
6. Adrian Amos
6. Daryl Roberts
7. Quinton Spain
What's up with A.B.?
ReplyDeleteHe wants more money.
ReplyDeleteWhat's up with A.B.?
ReplyDeleteHe's underpaid.
According to whom?
ReplyDeleteI'm not dismissing his talent, I like Brown but he didn't have an issue signing the current contract. So if he under performs do the Steelers get $$$$ back?
I just hate to see players hold out, I think his numbers will eventually decline once Bryant and Wheaton grasp the O better and build trust with Ben.
Bell is underpaid as well, so is ok for him to hold out also?
So if he under performs do the Steelers get $$$$ back?
ReplyDeleteYes, they can cut him since the contract is not guaranteed.
See Lamar Woodley.
And the Woodley cut saved us $?
ReplyDeleteSee cap issues..
Players are asked to take pay cuts all the time. See Troy, Ike, Harrison, etc.
ReplyDeleteI have no problem with him missing VOLUNTARY workouts in an attempt to get more money. It won't happen this year, but he's greasing the skids for 2016. Missing mandatory stuff won't get him anywhere. It will only cause the Steelers to dig in.
But it's not like Antonio is sitting around eating Cheetos and getting fat. I guarantee he is working out on his own.
Zeke, are you saying only players should be held accountable to the contracts they sign, but not teams?
ReplyDeleteI don't have a problem skipping "voluntary" workouts but it's being reported that he may skip "mandatory" minicamp and training camp..
ReplyDeleteI'm sure he isn't laying around eating his favorite snack, I'm saying I don't like the concept.
I'm well aware it's a business and he has the right to go after more money, but also the success of some of these players is the system.. IE Wallace, Holmes, ect
These guys take a lot of risk for what is relatively little financial reward for most of them. If contracts were guaranteed like in all the other major pro leagues, I'd feel differently, but they aren't.
ReplyDeleteAB is a hard worker and team leader. I'm sure the Steelers will take care of him, but Dale is right that if Rosenhaus leads AB down the holdout of mandatory workouts, the Rooneys will certainly dig in as they have done with HoF players like Harris and Woodson.
The guy made 4.5 million last year and will make 6 million this year. He's not taking a lot of risk for relatively little financial reward. Police officers, fire fighters and members of the military take a lot of risk for little financial reward. His job is to stay in shape and play a game. It's not like he's actually providing a service. The market dictates his worth and he is being paid below market value. Let's not act like it's anything more than that.
ReplyDeleteI don't blame a guy for holding out, as long as he doesn't diss the team in the media or make outrageous financial demands.
ReplyDeleteAB hasn't done the first and we don't know his demands. Since he's under contract for 3 more years this situation is kinda strange though.
I'm not worrying about Antonio Brown until late July, and won't get really annoyed until mid-August unless he starts doing sit-ups in his driveway with a news crew.
ReplyDeleteI don't think their bringing in some top-tier WRs has anything to do with today's news about Brown. I have no problem if BPA early is a WR, TE, or tackle. Hopefully it'll be a pass rusher, but I wouldn't be surprised if there were some tempting talent at 22 not in the ideal plan. (This is all in theory - I know nothing about college players and haven't had time to YouTube yet.)
FINAL Mock Schedule:
@ NE
SF
Cin
@ KC
@ Cle
Oak
@ Sea
---BYE WEEK---
@ St L
Ari
Bal
@ Cin
Cle
Den
@ SD
Ind
@ Bal
(Last year I got like eight games right!)