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Thursday, March 12, 2009

And the compensatory pick is …

Over the past few years, a gentleman who guys by the moniker of AdamJT13 on has picked up quite a following with his predictions about the NFL's compensatory picks.

In fact, he's become something of a Nostradamus in this area, getting an average of just under 24 of 32 correct over the past seven years. Considering nobody is really sure of how the NFL comes up with the compensatory picks, that's not bad.

Adam has come up with his list for comp picks, which won't be officially announced until the owner's meetings at the end of this month.

Here's what he came up with:

New England (Asante Samuel, $9.3567 million per season, 15 GP/15 GS, Pro Bowl)
Pittsburgh (Alan Faneca, $7.8 million, 16/16, Pro Bowl)
Cincinnati (Justin Smith, $7 million, 16/16) – possibly a fourth-round pick

Chicago (Bernard Berrian, $6.9 million, 16/13) – possibly a third-round pick
N.Y. Giants (Gibril Wilson, $6.5008 million, 16/15) – possibly a third-round pick
San Diego (Michael Turner, $5.75 million, 16/16, Pro Bowl) – possibly a third-round pick
San Diego (Drayton Florence, $5.9333 million, 15/8)
Tennessee (Antwan Odom, $5.9 million, 12/8)
Indianapolis (Jake Scott, $4.8 million, 16/16) – possibly a fifth-round pick

San Francisco (Kwame Harris, $4.6667 million, 14/11)
New England (Donte Stallworth, $4.5393 million, 11/7)
Dallas (Jacques Reeves, $4 million, 16/16) – possibly a sixth-round pick
Tennessee (Travis LaBoy, $4.4 million, 13/12) – possibly a sixth-round pick

Tennessee (Randy Starks, $3.885 million, 16/4)
New England (Randall Gay, $3.3125 million, 14/13)
Dallas (Julius Jones, $2.9 million, 15/10)
Cincinnati (Landon Johnson, $2.733 million, 15/0) – possibly a seventh-round pick
San Francisco (Marques Douglas, $2.525 million, 16/0) – possibly a seventh-round pick

Tennessee (Ben Hartsock, $2.25 million, 11/11)
Washington (Mark Brunell, $1.755 million, 2/0)
Seattle (Chuck Darby, $1.467 million, 15/15)
Seattle (Ellis Wyms, $1.4 million, 16/0)
Chicago (John Gilmore, $1.333 million, 16/10)
Seattle (Kevin Bentley, $1.3 million, 16/7)
Chicago (Brendon Ayanbadejo, $1.223 million, 16/0, Pro Bowl)
Cincinnati (Bryan Robinson, $1.2125 million, 16/15)
Seattle (D.J. Hackett, $1.2 million, 9/2)
Jacksonville (Terry Cousin, $1.115 million, 16/0)
Detroit (net-value comp pick, lost three for $10.721 million, 38/22; signed three for $7.134 million, 42/31)
Arizona (net-value comp pick, lost three for $9.45 million, 46/42; signed three for $6.9625 million, 40/27)
Detroit (non-compensatory pick)
Kansas City (non-compensatory pick)

So Adam has the Steelers getting a third for the loss of Alan Faneca, with the loss of Clark Haggans being offset by the signing of Mewelde Moore. Adam doesn't include the signing of Keyaron Fox in his figures, so that could affect things.

Center Justin Hartwig was released by Carolina, so he was a street free agent when the Steelers signed him. He won't affect the compensatory picks, much the same way Kendall Simmons won't affect the Steelers next year.


Anonymous said...

great news!

i too have been following Adam's predictions for several years. He usually gets most right

ch3 said...

Don't forget we also lost Frenchy last year (Brian St. Peire). He should help cancel out Fox. We should get a third. If we don't I would be very upset.

Anonymous said...

St. Peire doesn't count.

Adam says he didn't make enough and never played.

other-patrick said...

Kreider cancels Fox if Fox made enough to qualify. If you read his post you need to make about $800k to qualify. You also need significant playtime.

Also Tuman, Berger are non qualifying in my understanding

Viz-Burgh said...

Keyaron Fox was signed for the vet. minimum salary. Minimum salary signings don't count toward the formula. Kreider also signed for the minimum IIRC & he signed after June 1st which is the cut-off date for being included in the formula (unless your original team tenders you an offer by that point).

So as for qualifying players, we lost Faneca and Haggans & gained Moore. Haggans & Moore's contracts are the closest to each other, so they cancel out leaving us with Faneca who should give us pick #98, two picks after our normal 3rd rounder.

Dale Lolley said...

It's not strictly a contract thing. Playing time and achievement also factor in.