Tuesday, March 24, 2009

The guru responds to the compensatory scam

As visitors to this blog well know, I look to AdamJT13 (his code name) to figure out the compensatory picks each year. He's right a heck of a lot more often than he's wrong.

That said, Adam, who got 26 of the 32 picks right this year, is a little steamed about missing so badly on the Steelers' compensation. Pittsburgh, of course, received a fifth-round selection when Adam felt the Steelers would get a third.

"The one surprise that I can't explain is the Steelers getting only a fifth-round pick after losing two players (Alan Faneca and Clark Haggans) and signing one (Mewelde Moore). Haggans and Moore had seventh-round values and should have canceled out each other. Faneca played 99 percent of the snaps, made the Pro Bowl and got a huge contract ($7.8 million per season, plus a little more that doesn't count in the equation). He clearly had a third-round value, so I'm curious about why the Steelers got a fifth. Hopefully the media in Pittsburgh will look into it and get an answer," Adam wrote on his blog http://adamjt13.blogspot.com/

18 comments:

cat said...

what about hartwig ?

Viz-Burgh said...

"Hopefully the media in Pittsburgh will look into it and get an answer," Adam wrote on his blog....

Amen Adam. The Rooneys support the league to a fault & won't make a stink over this, so someone outside the organization has to (even though reports say that the team itself expected a 3rd for Faneca). The "secret formula" is bunk too. Why in the world wouldn't you make the formula known? Even if it's complex, at least it won't be seen as arbitrary.

Look at Adam's projections for this season -- 26 of 32 picks were right team, right round. 3 more were one round off (because he has to guess the cut off points that determine what round a guy qualifies for). Two more were guys who he thought MIGHT qualify but wasn't sure about . That adds up to 31 of the 32 picks - all of which make sense except for Faneca. And the fact that the Faneca pick is two rounds later than it should have been makes it stick out even more.

Viz-Burgh said...

Hartwig was cut by the Titans. Players cut by their original team don't factor into the comp pick formula.

The NFL listed the players that were a part of the formula for the Steelers in their press release on the comp picks. The players that qualified & figured in for the Steelers were:

Lost -- Alan Faneca, Clark Haggans
Signed -- Mewelde Moore

Patrick said...

I said it in the previous post, Moore and Haggans OBVIOUSLY were not seen to cancel each other out. There HAS to be subjective value on this: Haggans lost for the season to IR (I think?) and Moore had a productive season.

I'm not justifying it, but there is no way it is a strict number based formula or we would have a 3rd, at least a 4th.

Subjective judgment and in this case it didn't go our way. I hope there is more complaints about it, and rightly so, but we'll never get it back and the Steelers brass will NOT complain to the league about it. So yes I agree the media should cause a stink, but I think this is about as far it will go.

Unless PFT posts it......

(semi joke)

Dale Lolley said...

Haggans did play in 11 games.

Patrick said...

I think that even strengthens my point, 11 games compared to 16 with some HUGE plays for Moore. 19 games if you want to include the playoffs.

This had to be considered, if not then we wouldn't have a 5th. You can't tell me based on contract, % of snaps played, and a probowl that Samuel is definitely a 3rd for the Pats, Haggans and Moore cancel for us and Faneca is a 5th. That is Faneca v. Samuel and the discrepency is huge.

Maybe the subjectiveness was in Faneca's play? Many people seem to think he had a bad year depsite the Pro Bowl nomination.

Either way, someone or someones voiced their opinion on this and did not come up with the conclusion expected. Give someone a chance to voice their opinion and you cannot predict what they will say 100%.

The ball didn't bounce our way this time. and thats about it. I would think the League might say something similar and a little more politically correct if pressed about it.

Dale Lolley said...

I doubt they factor in how the individual played. For offensive linemen, that's very subjective.

Anonymous said...

Any idea if it is related to signing Fox?

http://news.steelers.com/team/player/87524/

Viz-Burgh said...

Again, "how he played" doesn't factor in at all. This is straight from the NFL.com story about comp picks:

"Compensatory free agents are determined by a formula based on salary, playing time and postseason honors."

Faneca's salary averages $7.8 mill./year. He started 16 of 16 possible games. And he went to the Pro-Bowl. There's no way he could have done better based on those figures.

Mewelde's salary averages $1.66 mill./year. He started 4 of the 16 games he dressed for. No postseason honors.

Clark Haggans signed a one year deal worth $1.34 mill. He started none of the games of the 11 games he dressed for. No postseason honors.

Did Mewelde do better for the Steelers than Haggans for the Cards? Yeah. But the equation still has them cancelling each other out. If it didn't, a lot of the other picks would have changed for other teams as well.

Again, here's the link to the nfl.com article on the comp picks:
http://www.nfl.com/news/story?id=09000d5d80f699b6&template=without-video-with-comments&confirm=true

Viz-Burgh said...

Regarding Fox:

See the third comment down, answering a poster who asked about Hartwig. The NFL listed every player in the equation & there were only three players who figured into the Steelers pick.

Patrick said...

"Did Mewelde do better for the Steelers than Haggans for the Cards? Yeah. But the equation still has them cancelling each other out. "

where does it say it cancels them out? I'm pretty sure that Moore playing in all 16 games, with 4 starts, in the reg season and Haggans playing only 11, with NO starts is the difference then.

What else could it be? The League hates the Steelers?

Anonymous said...

The "secret formula": reward the Patriots, screw the Steelers.

Anonymous said...

Did you guys consider the fact, that they may consider the fact, that The Stillers won the Super Bowl and the Jets didn't make the playoffs? I think this has something to do with it. Think about it...The Eagles make the playoffs, the Patriots didn't. The Patriots get a 3rd round pick. I believe the NFL takes making the playoffs, and advancing in them, very seriously when determing compensatory picks.

-Sasquatch

other patrick said...

We were one pick away from the 4th rounders.

Presumably the Rooney's are in on the secret of the formula.

What do they have to lose by making the formula public?

Dale Lolley said...

Col. Sanders is in on the secret formula.

Anonymous said...

can't be that we made the superbowl... The 2004 pats won the superbowl and got 3 comp picks, including a 3rd rounder.

Viz-Burgh said...

The Colts also got a 3rd rounder in '07 after winning the SB in '06.

Anonymous said...

I think this league is too much in love with the patriots. Overcompensate them, the 'brady' rule and a slap in the hand when they were caught cheating in 07... But we still gonna kick their butt.