Monday, March 19, 2012

Why I don't see a team making a run at Wallace

Now that Peyton Manning has chosen the Denver Broncos as his final destination, speculation has begun about the Broncos or 49ers making a pitch to Steelers restricted free agent Mike Wallace.

I don't see it happening in either case.

The Broncos already have a decent young receiving corps as the Steelers found out the hard way in the playoffs. If Demaryious Thomas and Eric Decker could make Tim Tebow look good at times, imagine how they will do with Manning.

And the more important rumor is that Manning would like to bring tight end Dallas Clark along with him from Indianapolis. That makes a lot more sense.

The Broncos could then spend their remaining cap space to beef up their defensive line, which is a weakness.

As for San Francisco, the 49ers can add all the receivers in the world, but right now, they don't have a quarterback. That's a little more important.

I'm not saying it won't happen, but even if it does, the Steelers will work hard to match the offer. They're not going to allow Wallace to walk.

18 comments:

Eric T said...

Dale,

Assuming no team makes him an offer, will Wallace and the FO go back to negotiating a long term deal? Or is Wallace and/or the FO content on letting him play the year onthe qualifying offer?

dan said...

I doubt the 49ers, but if the broncos are willing to bet the farm on Manning I could see them parting with their first pick to get Wallace, and outbid the steelers easily

hopefully they have some sense

Robbie said...

Wallace to the 49ers makes zero sense for anyone with a working brain cell (I'm looking at you, Peter King). They currently can line up in a 3WR set with Mario Manningham, Randy Moss, Michael Crabtree, Vernon Davis and Frank Gore. Not too shabby, no? So who of the above gets sent to bench once they supposedly shell out $10+ million/year and a 1st round pick for Wallace?

It's the same deal with the pundits who thought Peyton Manning to the Cardinals was a no-brainer. Superficially it looked like a perfect match, but the reality is they have under $1 million in cap room. Manning will cost $19 million/year to sign. It's not difficult math.

Now, unfortunately I could envision Wallace to the Broncos happening. They're obviously in "win now" mode with Manning, so spending a 1st round pick on a proven WR might be more appealing to them than drafting a WR that they'd have to take time to develop. They have so much cap room that money isn't really an issue.

Thomas and Decker have obviously flashed great potential, but neither has produced as consistently or as prolifically as Wallace. Plus, James Harrison wrecked Decker's knee in January. Will he even be able to play this year? Who else do they have on the roster besides Tyler Grisham?

Also, I can see the team going overboard to placate Peyton with as many expensive toys as possible. Might they use their 1st rounder to get Wallace and their 2nd rounder to trade for one of the Carolina RBs?

Ramble over.

Anonymous said...

Why WON'T they allow him to walk? I know we're thin on wide receivers and he's a legitimate deep threat, but we're going to lose him next year to a team that will pay him absurd money even though he disappears late in the season. I'd rather get the pick in return since I dont see him sticking around. Even the franchise tag only buys us a year.

Anonymous Brian said...

I think Eric Decker only had an MCL sprain on the Harrison hit.

There are two, maybe three receivers who I think are slam-dunk worth a first round pick. Wallace is not one of them, as dangerous as he is.

If the Broncos sign Dallas Clark and then troll for a Cotchery-type, pick up a solid rookie, then use their first rounder on another need, it makes alot more sense.

Anonymous said...

There are not a lot of "solid" rookie receivers....they are rookies. Thats the point. Denver will not want to go through the growing pains (mistakes)that they all do. Wallace fits the bill. Proven and not a head case. Game is not over yet. In my opinion.

Anonymous said...

Agree on Den and SF. But I think everyone is sleeping on Houston, who has a history of making runs at RFAs and who has a shrilling need at WR. They traded for Schaub who was an RFA then. Swapped 1sts with Atl, and got 2 R2s. Also poached Kris Brown way back when with a contract the Steelers had difficulty matching. I know they don't have an abundance of cap space. But if the Steelers have demonstrated anything this offseason (and many others), it's the malleable/mutable properties of any given salary cap. Jacoby Jones isn't who they hoped he was, and would probably like to get out from under him, opening another $3m. Not predicting this, just saying that's one team I could see making a run at Wallace. It's in his backyard. Contender. Need. History of moves. And can easily get the needed money. Low R1 pick. Possible. Could be sandbagging, hoping the Steelers relax and make one or two low end FA moves that further restricts their ability to match.

Anonymous said...

What everyone needs to see here is....the Steelers can MATCH any offer given to Wallace.

And, unless someone offers him $11-12 million, it aint happening. And it wont. Thats near QB money.

You have to think that AND a 1st round pick is pretty costly for any team.

AND, the Steelers have said, they want to re-sign him. The would have tagged him if they had the room. They have told him they will sign a long term deal if he has patience.

The FO doesnt BS, they are not the Browns.

Trust the team, they will keep Wallace.

Paul

Anonymous said...

And I don't know why people assume they have the ability to match any offer, and turn around and say they woulda tagged him but couldn't. If they have the room to MATCH, they should have the room to TAG, making all this moot. They didn't. They don't. They have leveraged almost every nickel they could to get the space they have right now. What happens if they think they've weathered the storm on Wallace, and resign Cotchery? Or Gay? Or one or two other low end FAs? It wouldn't be hard to structure a contract that the Steelers couldn't match. Houston kinda did that once before on a R7 tendered Kris Brown. Houston gave up 2 R2s and a big contract for a backup QB. If there is one team out there that has the need and has demonstrated they're willing to make a transaction like this, it's Houston. It's not a matter of 'trust'. The FO is gambling here. The odds are in their favor. But it's no slam dunk. Just saying, I wouldn't be surprised if Houston is sandbagging, waiting for the Steelers to burn just enough remaining space to make that play.

Anonymous said...

Dale,

What do you think about the idea of the Steelers cutting Mendenhall? We would get 2 million in cap savings and he is going to end up missing about half the season anyways. Even when he gets back he won't be %100.

Worth it?

Robbie said...

I agree with what some other posters alluded to here - the Steelers are totally handcuffed in their ability to sign any free agents before April 20, because they need to keep all their cap room in the event they have to match an offer sheet for Wallace. It could cost them players like Cotchery and Gay (not the end of the world, I know, but they're valuable role players I'm sure the Steelers would like to re-sign).

...Unless, the Steelers agree with Ed Bouchette and many here that the team would be better off with the 1st rounder than Wallace, in which case they might sign a couple FAs to get closer to the cap in order to bait some team into signing Wallace to an offer sheet. I don't believe that for a second though.

Lance said...

Wallace is not going anywhere. Another team is not going to pay 10 mill. and give up a first rounder. And Why are so many afraid to lose Cotchery? Don't get me wrong, I like him and hope he stays, but how hard will it be to find 16 catches for 237 yds and a couple tds? The Steelers will be fine this year, maybe better by doing what they always do, be patient, don't get caught up in the hype of Free Agency, draft well and sign their own free Agents.

How are all the teams doing that sign the big names? Everyone wanted to give the Eagles the trophy last year before the season started, how'd that work out?

Relax and enjoy being a fan of the best run organization in sports.

Anonymous said...

Dale just jinxed it

thanks a lot

Anonymous said...

The reason they didnt franchise him, is because it would require $9 mil in cap space right away.

When they sign him to a $9+mil deal, he will only count about $4-5 mil vs the cap this seasaon.

Thats how they work, and it makes total sense.

Paul

emac2 said...

Don't forget that money still needs to be set aside for the draft.

Long term Wallace is worth 10 per on the open market but isn't worth that much to the Steelers. I don't expect this will come down to what the Steelers can or cannot do though as in the unlikely event he even gets an offer, they won't spend 10 per even for a cap friendly deal.

Dale Lolley said...

They didn't franchise him because they didn't want to be locked in at $9.4 million right now.
The weighed the options and felt they could match any offer for him if they so choose.
They are not "handcuffed" right now. They have roughly $6 million in space right now. There are some more easy cuts they could make if they had to - Jonathan Scott, Will Allen - but they will only do that if they have to.

As for Mendenhall, they're not going to cut him. He's playing on his rookie contract and doesn't cost much.

bruinmann77 said...

Dale is waiting for Wallace holding the steelers back in any way going after any FA.
Will the Steelers wait till the deadline until making any move on FA.I guess they can always fall back to the Tender offer.

Anonymous said...

Wallace WILL NOT return to the Steelers. He wants way too much money. Brown is the better receiver. Add another speedster rookie. Add Sanders and Cotchery and we are good to go. I want two first round picks, one for the OL and one for the DL or IMLB. Good WR are too easy to replace. OL and DL are hard to find.