Regular followers of this blog know that I went 11-0 versus the spread last year in the playoffs. I can't promise that kind of performance again this year – I'd be in Vegas instead of Washington if I could - but I did finish a solid 130-111-3 against the spread picking games in the paper this year.
Here's who I like this weekend
N.Y. Jets (plus 3 1/2) at Cincinnati - The Bengals went very vanilla last week while the Jets threw out everything and the kitches sink. I'm not a big fan of rookie quarterbacks in the playoffs, especially on the road. Take the Bengals, 20-13
Philadelphia (plus 4) at Dallas - People always like to bring up that old "it's hard to beat a team three times in one season" mantra. But is it? In 19 times a team has swept the regular season series with a division opponent, it has also won the third game 12 times. That's 12-7, so it's not that tough to beat a team three times. Sometimes, you're just better. Take Dallas, 27-17
Baltimore (plus 3 1/2) at New England - The Patriots struggled to beat the Ravens at home earlier this season, winning 27-21 with the help of some generous calls from the officials. Wes Welker didn't play that game, either. I like the road team here, take Baltimore, 23-20.
Green Bay (plus 1) at Arizona - If Anquan Boldin doesn't play, the Cards aren't nearly as explosive. And Arizona was also mediocre at home this season. Green Bay is my pick to win the NFC and it starts this week. Take the Packers, 31-24.