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Sunday, March 29, 2015

One-month out mock draft

With the NFL draft now one month away, it's time for a second shot at a mock draft. Again, this is a mock draft and my feelings about players and teams change from day to day as I hear or read things and teams continue signing free agents.

Here we go:

1. Tampa Bay, Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State - Unchanged. This is where the Bucs have been leaning for more than a month.

2. Tennessee, Leonard Williams, DL, USC - Also unchanged, though the Titans will consider moving down. Williams will be too good to pass up.

3. N.Y. Jets (from Jacksonville), Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon - The Jets have realized that they don't have their QB of the future in Geno Smith. They have to move up from 6 to get Mariota to keep another team from jumping them (Cleveland,Chicago?)

4. Oakland, Kevin White, WR, West Virginia - The Raiders need to get a threat for young QB Derek Carr.

5. Washington, Dante Fowler, LB/DE, Florida - The Redskins need to improve their pass rush.

6. Jacksvonlle (from Jets), Vic Beasley, LB/DE, Clemson - The run on edge rushers begins.

7. Chicago, Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama - The Bears couldn't move up to get Mariota, so they settle for a replacement for Brandon Marshall.

8. Atlanta, Shane Ray, LB/DE, Missouri - Another edge rusher for a team sorely lacking in pass rush.

9. N.Y. Giants, Brandon Scherff, OL, Iowa - The Giants must do a better job of protecting Eli Manning.

10. St. Louis, La'el Collins, OT, LSU - The Rams took Greg Robinson last season, now get a bookend.

11. Minnesota, Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State - The Vikings' division dictates they address their CB situation.

12. Cleveland, Danny Shelton, DT, Washington - The Browns get a player who can help improve their horrid run defense.

13. New Orleans, Randall Gregory, DE/LB, Nebraska - Gregory's positive drug test at the combine causes him to slip a little. But not much.

14. Miami, DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville - The Dolphins are completely retooling their WR group.

15. San Francisco, Marcus Peters, CB, Washington - The 49ers have big needs at ILB as well, but this is too early to solve that. Their CB depth is lacking.

16. Houston, Jaelen Strong, WR, Arizona - With Andre Johnson moving on, the Texans need a replacement.

17. San Diego, Andrus Peat, OT, Stanford - Running back will be an option, but the Chargers can get one later in the draft.

18. Kansas City, Ereck Flowers, OT, Miami - The Chiefs need help at both OT and G, so they can play Flowers at either spot until he gets up to speed.

19. Cleveland (from Buffalo), Alvin Dupree, OLB/DE, Kentucky - I don't like Dupree, but I could see where a team might be intrigued by his workouts. The Browns can work him in as a pass rusher.

20. Philadelphia, Kevin Johnson, CB, Wake Forest - The Eagles signed Byron Maxwell, but still need corner help. Johnson could start right away.

21. Cincinnati, T.J. Clemmings, OT, Pitt - Offensive tackle Andrew Whitworth will turn 34 this season. The Bengals must think about his replacement. And Clemmings can play guard until they're ready to turn things over to him.

22. Pittsburgh, Owamagbe Odighizuwa, OLB, UCLA - With the top three corners gone, the Steelers will be forced to wait until the second round to address that need (DJoun Smith, Doran Grant). Diggy gives them the eventual replacement for James Harrison.

23. Detroit, Malcom Brown, DT, Texas - Haloti Ngata helps ease their DT losses, but he's on the wrong side of 30.

24. Arizona, Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin - The Cardinals need a true No. 1 back.

25. Carolina, Landon Collins, S, Alabama - A value pick. The Panthers have greater needs, but can't pass on Collins.

26. Baltimore, Breshad Perriman, WR, UCF - The Ravens need a speed receiver to replace Torrey Smith.

27. Dallas, Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia - Darren McFadden is no long-term answer at running back, but he gives the Cowboys time to get Gurley up to speed.

28. Denver, Maxx Williams, TE, Minnesota - The Broncos are in a win-now mode and Williams can help them do that.

29. Indianapolis, Eric Kendricks, ILB, UCLA - Kendricks is a playmaker who fits in nicely in their system.

30. Green Bay, Shaq Thompson, ILB, Washington - He's undersized, but can be a nice run-and-cover inside backer in a 3-4.

31. New Orleans, Cameron Erving, C, Florida State - Yes, the Saints just traded for Max Unger, but they can put Erving at guard, where they need a replacement for Ben Grubbs.

32. New England, Dorial Green-Beckham, WR, Oklahoma - Green-Beckham falls because of his troubled past, but Bill Belichick has never shied away from those kind of players.


datruth4life said...

Dale, I could see them taking "OO" in the first round if Kevin Johnson is gone and then taking Eric Rowe in the 2nd round and playing him at CB. In fact, Gerry Dulac has mentioned several times that the Steelers really like Rowe as a CB. What round do you think Penn State TE Jesse James will be drafted? It seems like the Steelers are very high on him as well. By the way, here is my first mock of the year:

1. CB K. Johnson, Wake Forest
2. OLB Nate Orchard, Utah
3. CB/S E. Rowe, Utah
4. WR T. McBride, William and Mary
5. TE J. James, Penn State
6. DT Derrick Lott, Tennessee-Chattanooga
6. OLB Kyle Emmanuel, North Dakota State
7. OT L. Gibson, Va. Tech

Dale Lolley said...

James received a late-round or underrated grade from the advisory committee but came out anyway. His workouts, however, were good. So I think fourth or fifth round for him. But there is a lack of tight end depth in this draft, so he could go a little higher.

Your mock looks good but I don't think Orchard lasts until their pick in the second. I could be wrong, obviously.

A lot of teams are looking hard at Rowe. He could wind up in the second because of that size/speed combo.

Noel said...

This is one of the more believable mocks I've seen. I'm as good at predicting the draft as I am at juggling chainsaws but the more I see the more I'd be happy with Odighizuwa in the first. There's lots of CB depth; I'd rather they wait on that until the second or maybe even take two in the third (not like they haven't done that before but this would be a good year to try it again).

Ryan said...

What's the word on PJ Williams draft stock? Still early 2nd? Any chance he is there for the Steelers in the 2nd?

datruth4life said...

Dale, I think a Double O and Eric Rowe draft the first 2 rounds would be fine for this football team. I think the Steelers would be in a little bit better shape depth-wise on both lines if they had kept the Wesley Johnsons, Josh Mauros and Nick Williams from getting poached from the team's roster and practice squads, respectively.
No more 5th round picks on CBs, please.

Dale Lolley said...

Can't keep them all on the active roster, datruth. The Steelers were in the middle of a division race last season. The guys who were on the 53 were needed.

Perhaps if they hadn't carried Ike all season they would have had room. But ...

Tom said...

Think you're on to something Dale...Owa could very well be our guy if there's no CB's we like on the board. Also my bold prediction is thwt there will be a run on CB's early and Johnson will go before the Steelers pick the same way Kyle Fuller did last year. On the bright side, that means someone talented will fall.

Dale Lolley said...

As for P.J. Williams, Ryan, I don't think he'll be available. But he's got some red flags as well.

Not real fast and gave up five TDs last season. And, he was the driver in the accident that he and Darby fled while he was driving on a suspended license.

Overall, a solid player, but there are some issues.

Anonymous said...

Agree with the general notion that it's early or not at all for big OLB (def: ~260#) and that CB value is post-R1. Also, appreciate the Eric Rowe love; others in the size/speed/agility set include Byron Jones and Eric Mager. Collins is not far off the mark and both Carter and Shaw have some merit.

However, i do like Bud Dupree more than Dale does. While it's true his production has yet to match his athleticism, it's also true that Dupree's production eclipsed double-O's. In their final two seasons:

Dupree: 14.5 sacks; 22TFL; 135 tackles.
Double-O: 9.5 sacks; 17.5 TFL; 105 tackles.

OO didn't play in 2013; numbers are '14 and '12. Level of competition is similar, favoring Dupree, if either. Reports i've read suggest OO is more a stuffer than a rusher.

Anonymous said...

Danielle Hunter is one exception to the early-or-don't "rule" for big OLB. Hunter had an excellent Pro Day; later, reportedly, dined with Tomlin, and with Jalen Collins. Hunter has traits, but has no, as yet, been a productive pass rusher. Two year stats at LSU:

4.5 sacks
21 TFL
130 tackles

Other than sacks similar to Dupree. OO is second in sacks, 3rd in others.

Anonymous said...


What do you make of perceived interest in DaVante Parker? Tomlin took him out at the Pro Day and they brought him in for a private workout. He's obviously a first round talent, but I think many would be surprised with a WR in the first round.

Dale Lolley said...

Covering their bases with Parker. And as K. Colbert told us when we had him on radio at the combine, there are different ways to win in the league. If Parker is easily the BPA when they pick and he can help them score 30 points per game instead of 27, then perhaps they would take him.

Diggy's tape is much better than Dupree's. He has a much better feel for the game.

HACK said...

Thats why I think a dark horse pick is DGB. A true high pointer that uses his hands to pluck the ball out of the air. I think he would easily raise that points per game total...even in part time duty as a rookie.

Anonymous said...

As a Bruin fan, I agree that Owa is a good player when healthy. However, there is considerable risk in projecting him to OLB considering he was not asked to cover guys in space as a DE in UCLA's 3-4 scheme. It is also unlikely he would be able to add enough mass to become a DE in the Steelers' scheme. I like him as a prospect, but he might be a better fit elsewhere.

Eric T said...

HACK: No way DGB is on the Steeler's draft board.

The woman said Green-Beckham pushed her down at least four stairs.

They are not investing a 1st round pick into somebody with his history, especially with the new policies put in place last season.

Dale Lolley said...

Green-Beckham is not only a bad actor, he's a sloppy route runner as well. I agree, he won't be on the Steelers' board.

Dale Lolley said...

I might add that this mock is just my month out mock. It wouldn't be any fun if I just had the same pick for the Steelers each time.