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Tuesday, March 17, 2015

Six weeks out mock draft

With the draft now about six weeks away and the combine completed, let's take a look at how things are shaping up with our first mock draft:

1. Tampa Bay, Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State - This is a done deal.

2. Tennessee, Leonard Williams, DT, USC - Best defensive player in the draft.

3. Jacksonville, Dante Fowler, DE/LB, Florida - Very close in terms of overall talent to Williams.

4. Oakland, Kevin White, WR, West Virginia - The Raiders have always been enamored with speed guys. White burned it up at the combine.

5. Washington, Vic Beasley, OLB, Clemson - The Redskins are something of a mystery at this point and could go a number of directions. Beasley replaces Brian Oropko.

6. N.Y. Jets, Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon - The Jets keep trying at QB.

7. Chicago, Danny Shelton, DT, Washington - A big, active body in the middle.

8. Atlanta, Shane Ray, OLB/DE, Missouri - The Falcons have to improve a pitiful pass rush.

9. N.Y. Giants, Brandon Scherff, OT, Iowa - The Giants have to find a way to protect Eli Manning better.

10. St. Louis, Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama - The Rams have been getting by with JAGs (Just Another Guy) at receiver for too long.

11. Minnesota, Landon Collins, S, Alabama - Collins isn't great with the ball in the air, but he's an outstanding box safety.

12. Cleveland, La'el Collins, OT, LSU - The Browns have to start looking at replacing Joe Thomas.

13. New Orleans, DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville - After trading away Jimmy Graham and Kenny Stills, the Saints need weapons on the outside.

14. Miami, Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State - The Dolphins go for the upgrade in their secondary.

15. San Francisco, Marcus Peters, CB, Washington - The 49ers are likely to lose a couple of corners in free agency.

16. Houston, Randy Gregory, OLB, Nebraska - The Texans continue to try to add complimentary pass rushers to go along with J.J. Watt.

17. San Diego, Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin - Phil Rivers can't do it all by himself.

18. Kansas City, Dorial Green-Beckham, Oklahoma - Paired with Jeremy Maclin, he gives them a completely new receiver group.

19. Cleveland, Malcom Brown, DT, Texas - The Browns were dead last in the league against the run in 2014.

20. Philadelphia, Arik Armstead, DT, Oregon - Best Duck available.

21. Cincinnati, Ereck Flowers, OT, Miami - Bengals fortify their line.

22. Pittsburgh, Kevin Johnson, CB, Wake Forest - Mike Tomlin, Kevin Colbert, Carnell Lake and Danny Rooney were all in attendance at the Wake Forest pro day. Enough said.

23. Detroit, Andrus Peat, OT, Stanford - The Lions have plenty of playmakers. Now need to protect Matt Stafford.

24. Arizona, Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia - Even if he can't play right away, they have enough of a running game to wait for this kind of talent.

25. Carolina, T.J. Clemmings, OT, Pitt - Could start at RT or guard right away and eventually move to LT.

26. Baltimore, Maxx Williams, TE, Minnesota - The Ravens need tight end help in the worst way.

27. Dallas, Owamagbe Odighizua, DE/OLB, UCLA - Cowboys go defensive.

28. Denver, Jordan Phillips, DT, Oklahoma - A big, powerful player to replace Terrence Knighton.

29. Indianapolis - Eddie Goldman, DT, Florida State - An interior pass rusher who can help bolster the run defense.

30. Green Bay, Eric Kendricks, ILB, UCLA - The Packers need ILB help right away.

31. New Orleans, Jalen Collins, CB, LSU - The Saints got a WR earlier. They need another corner.

32. New England, Carl Davis, DT, Iowa - Davis helps replace Vince Wilfork.


datruth4life said...

Dale, you don't OLB Bud Dupree is a first round draft pick, particularly as an option for the Steelers at 22? I'd rather go OLB in first round and DB in the 2nd round. The Ravens playoff loss proved that you don't need 4 Rod Woodsons in the backfield as long as the QB can't get the ball out. You aren't that concerned with Johnson's 4.52 in the 40?

Dale Lolley said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Dale Lolley said...

I am not a Dupree fan

Dale Lolley said...

I am not a Dupree fan and I thin Johnson is plenty fast enough

Dale Lolley said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Anonymous said...

Tell us how you really feel Dale.

I like Dupree and the Collins kid from LSU.

Patrick said...

Are you a Dupree fan?

Phil said...

This is an interesting mock! Why don't you like Dupree? Which OLBs do you like in this draft?

Phil said...

I meant which OLBs do you think the Steelers may be interested in.

Anonymous said...

So, Dupree, yes or no?

Wish Johnson woulda ran again at his pro day. And benched. And ate a sandwich. But ok fine. While his 40 wasn't world beating, the rest of his workouts were fantastic.

Dale Lolley said...

Sorry, cell phone went haywire.

It's not that I think Dupree is terrible. I just think the production didn't match his workouts. Disappeared a lot in the film I've watched.

Anonymous said...

Chances of landing and outstanding CB after 1st round take a dive, while chance of Good OLB is still pretty good until 3 rd.

Nick Stat

datruth4life said...

Dale, I don't have a problem with taking Johnson in the first round if he is the best available player, but I don't want to wait until the 2nd round to try and get my pass rusher. The value at the CB position is in the 2nd and 3rd round this year while you better get a pass rusher while you can. I see your argument, but unless KJ is an absolute stud, I'm taking Dupree. I think Porter and Butler can coach'em up.

Anonymous said...

Good to see another scrambling QB bust on its way to the a high pick. Winston = RGIII v.2.

Anonymous said...

lol, I think Winston is gonna be a bust cause he's a knucklehead, but comparing him to Griffin is laughable. Their games are polar opposites, and the man at least has handled a pro offense. Griffin during his acl tear could probably outrun Winston too! That said, yeah he screams bust

other_patrick said...

Johnson has interesting combine.

40 time is not great, long shuttle is likewise poor but short shuttle and vertical jump are excellent. Speaks to some explosion and short area agility.

Patrick said...

I feel like Mock drafts are meant for criticism, so with no offense to Dale, let me say that I like the first 7 picks, except that someone would probably trade up Mariota, I highly doubt Landon Collins goes that high, don't see SD going for Gordon, Houston isn't drafting OLB and I think Gregory goes a few spots higher, and I think the burn from Jonathan Baldwin still stings enough for KC to stay far away from Green-Beckham + don't see Reid liking him.

Anonymous Brian said...

I know nothing about college football / the draft but Kevin Johnson looks skinny. (Pro football either, really.)

Anyway if they take a CB in the first round or two, I say the Steelers are due for a hit.

Thought: What happens if the slam dunk BPA at 22 is not an OLB or CB? Say, WR?

If you're really drafting long-term talent over need, don't you kind of have to take the WR, especially considering the game is turning into every week being 48-45 scores, etc.? And you never know. The 49ers thought they were stacked at ILB a month ago, I bet.

Phil said...

Dale, I agree that Dupree doesn't stand out on film. However, you can't teach that athleticism. His college tape is the opposite of Jones's; Jarvis made tons of plays but didn't look very athletic.

I thought the Steelers preferred big CBs who can tackle and have hands of stone. I'm not sure Johnson fits that mold (he's not a great tackler or run defender) but I'd be excited if they drafted a guy who can actually play man coverage and occasionally snag an INT.

The problem with taking a CB in the first is this: Who rushes the passer for the Steelers in 2015?

marc said...

I think a rookie CB can have more of an impact than a rookie OLB, especially in the steeler's defense. If they took OLB in the 1st round, I wouldn't expect much out of him until year 2/3 production wise.

Phil said...

When is the last time a rookie at any position became a quality contributor in their first year? If they're not going to contribute doesn't it make sense to get the best player available at the greatest position of need?

marc said...

are you speaking strictly for the steelers? there were a few CB's that did pretty well as rookies last year. roby for the broncos stands out to me the most, and he was a late 1st round pick, obviously.

Dale Lolley said...

Winston isn't a scrambling quarterback. While he has his flaws - both on and off the field - he's more of a pocket passer.

Their feelings on corners might be shifting a bit. I keep hearing rumblings how they want more playmakers back there due to the way the game is changing. Johnson's 6-0, 185. He'll continue to fill out.

I expect Dupree will go somewhere in the first based on his athleticism. Like I said, I'm just not a fan.

ibygeorge said...

Speaking of how the game has changed, what's the status of changing the pass interference penalty to 15 yds.

ibygeorge said...

Speaking of how the game has changed, what's the status of changing the pass interference penalty to 15 yds.

Anonymous said...

I see Pitt double dipping and taking 2 CBs and 2 OLBs.

Joe Jones said...

Hahahahaha Winston can't scramble and very rarely does. He's going to dominate at the pro level, so long as he keeps his fingers clean.

Noel said...

What are the thoughts of the group on Owamagbe Odighizuwa of he's there in the second round? I don't follow college ball but I like what I see in the various links going around (assuming his hips are okay of course).

LexingtonLegend said...

Mike Tomlin along with Marvin Lewis & Mike Zimmer were the only head coaches to attend Kentucky's pro day.

Dale Lolley said...

Watch this video and tell me what there is to like about Dupree:

Anonymous said...

Great site. watched vids, Looks like he doesn't know what is going on and doesn't have any technique

Dale Lolley said...

That would be my assessment as well. He's an around guy. Always around the pile watching somebody else make the tackle.

Dale Lolley said...

Bottom line is that Dupree doesn't scream first-round talent to me, despite his workout numbers. Looks like Tarzan. Plays like Jane.

At least Jarvis Jones did something in college. And I haven't given up on him yet.

Joe Jones said...

What does Green-Beckum have to do with Jonathan Baldwin?

This draft class is weak, so they can go in any order.

I'd be shocked if the Titans pass on Mariotta.
Even though Williams completes their defense and makes it one of the NFL's best,
how the heck can you pass on a franchise QB with Selfie guy under center?

The titans have ZILCH going for them on offense.
Yet they might pass on a 3-tool QB???

Joe Jones said...

I recall Ezeikiel Ansah being an athletic freak who was still a lottery pick, despite having only like 4 career sacks or something.

Then again, Ansah finished this season with 7.5 not shabby, not good.

BlackNGold said...

Plus, if I remember correctly, Tomlin, Butler and Porter were all at Dupree's pro-day so they must have seen something they liked. I doubt they go off of the combine alone and have looked at plenty of film on him.

Dale Lolley said...

I just don't like Dupree. Watch his film. Tell me what he does well.

There's nothing there.

Anonymous said...

There's not much to like in Jarvis Jones' Steeler tape either.

This one, like most mock drafts, arranges and rearranges the usual suspects. There is no shortage of suspects in this class.

Winston, DGB and, maybe Marcus Peters, have more character issues than i'd want to deal with.

There are injury/durability issues attached to Phillips and Gurley; on body type (and a non-trivial Nebraska nick litany) Gregory is in that bag too.

Some guys, ala J. Jones 2013, blew their workout. Fowler's Combine wasn't great (except his excellent 10 and good 40), nor was Leonard Williams'. Shane Ray's Pro Day was terrible. A fair number of the so-called top CB ran slow; 4.52-4.57. Some, like Johnson, hit it on agilities but most did not. Generally, the bigger, better athletes at CB are ranked R2 into Day 3. On a long term basis, that's about what today's top CB are worth. If that.

To the PS prospects:

Dupree was great on hops and 40; bad Pro Day agilities, no reps. Incomplete. Kevin Johnson was great on hops and agilities but his 40 was subpar. Reportedly, he played <180# last year; even at 188#, he's a li'l light. Taken across the years, vs. all CB, he's a reach in R1. Other than Joe Haden, not a lot of smallish, slowish R1 CB have made it.

Where the PS are R1, BPA probably will come out of the value set at OL; some combo of Flowers, Erving, maybe Peat. There is need. While the 2015 Steelers will return all starters, only Pouncey and Gilbert are under contract for 2016. Were they to extend DeCastro, they'd have an unusual % of cap locked up in IOL. Therefore, i doubt they extend DeCastro.

From 2010-12, the PS FO tried to upgrade OL and did so, to some extent. However, the job isn't over.

Anonymous said...

Nitoicking CLEV, 1.12:

If the Browns must look to replace Joe Thomas then the Steelers must look to replace Lawrence Timmons. Both were rookies in 2007. Neither have much in the way of injury history.