I know the Steelers are 0-3 on the road this season. I know they've given up fourth quarter leads in all three of their road games. And I know they will be playing without their top two running backs.
But for some reason, I like this team this week.
Actually, there are several reasons.
First and foremost is the fact that Cincinnati is converting just 27 percent of its third downs - 20 of 75.
The Steelers are allowing opponents to convert at a 49.2 percent rate, but even if that number is somewhere in the middle this week - let's say 36 percent - the Steelers will win.
So long as the Steelers don't let anyone get behind them - and despite their struggles, they lead the league in fewest explosive plays allowed (everybody's defense stinks) - they should be OK.
Another factor that makes me favor the Steelers is Cincinnati's offensive line.
The Bengals have allowed quarterback Andy Dalton to be sacked 17 times in 232 pass attempts, an average of one every 13.6 dropbacks. And if you throw out a game against pitiful Jacksonville in which the Bengals didn't allow a sack in 31 pass attempts, that number falls to one every 11.8 attempts.
With LaMarr Woodley and James Harrison on the field together, the Steelers - who had eight sacks against the Bengals in 2011 - will generate some pressure. In fact, Woodley has eight sacks against the Bengals, his most against any opponent.
The final thing favoring the Steelers is the desperation factor. This is a team that was in shock after losing at Tennessee, but part of that shock could have been from Mike Tomlin's decision to attempt a 54-yard field goal with just under one minute remaining.
That decision, more than anything, cost the Steelers. When Shaun Suisham missed the kick, it gave the Titans the ball in excellent field position, needing just 20 or so yards to get into field goal range.
That's a tough spot to put any defense in, let alone one that is struggling.
Finally, there's this: The Steelers are 11-2 all-time at Paul Brown Stadium.
The Steelers are 1 1/2-point favorites to win this one and will do so.
Take Pittsburgh, 24-20