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Tuesday, April 23, 2013

Final mock draft

Without any clear-cut stars at the skill positions, the 2013 NFL Draft could prove to be one of the more interesting in years. Here’s one look at how things could go in the first round Thursday:
1. Kansas City, Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M – The Chiefs have a lot of needs – obviously – but Joeckel is considered perhaps the safest pick in this draft. Others to consider: Shariff Floyd, DT, Florida; Eric Fisher, OT, Central Michigan
2. Jacksonville, Eric Fisher, OT, Central Michigan – The Jags started their frachise with Tony Boselli as their first pick. Fisher gives them another franchise tackle. Others to consider: Shariff Floyd, DT, Florida; Dion Jordan, DE, Oregon
3. Oakland, Shariff Floyd, DT, Florida – After getting rid of Richard Seymour and Tommy Kelly, this is an obvious need pick for the Raiders. Others to consider: Fisher, Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia
4. Philadelphia, Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia - New head coach Chip Kelly wants to run the spread. Smith gives him a top-rated QB to build with while Michael Vick starts one more season. Others to consider: Fisher; Milliner; Ziggy Ansah, DE, BYU
5. Detroit, Dion Jordan, DE, Oregon – The Lions have been building their defense around pass rushers. Others to consider: Milliner, Ansah
6. Cleveland, Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama – The Browns get a second top-notch corner to pair with Joe Hayden. Others to consider: Ansah
7. Arizona, Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma – The Cardinals have been awful protecting the quarterback the past two seasons. Others to consider: Ansah, Chance Warmack, G, Alabama
8. Buffalo, Tavon Austin, WR, West Virginia – It’s too early for another quarterback here. Two WVU players in the top 10? That’s how good the offense was in 2012. About that defense. … Others to consider: Ansah
9. N.Y. Jets, Star Lotulelei, DT, Utah – The Jets lost Sione Pouha this offseason and replaced him with a 33-year-old Antonio Garay. Rex Ryan also would like to beef up the pass rush, but Lotulelei could be too good to pass up. Others to consider: Ansah; Barkevious Mingo, OLB, LSU
10. Tennessee, Chance Warmack, G, Alabama – Ansah’s fall continues as teams pass on potential for immediate needs. Warmack will help clear a path for Chris Johnson. Others to consider: Ansah; Jonathan Cooper, G, North Carolina
11. San Diego, Jonathan Cooper, G, North Carolina – The Chargers need offensive line help, though Ansah could make sense here, too. Others to consider: Ansah; Mingo; Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georgia
12. Miami, Ziggy Ansah, DE/OLB, BYU – The Dolphins could trade up to get ahead of Arizona and grab Johnson. If not, Ansah would be too good to pass up in this scenario. Others to consider: Mingo; Jones; D.J. Fluker, OT, Alabama
13. N.Y. Jets, Barkevious Mingo, OLB, LSU – Rex Ryan reportedly loves Mingo’s athleticism. This is the pick they received for Darrelle Revis, so a corner would make sense as well. Others to consider: Xavier Rhodes, CB, Florida State; Bjoern Werner, DE, Florida State
14. Carolina, Sheldon Richardson, DT, Florida State – Missouri. The Panthers need corner help but are said to love Richardson as well. Others to consider: Kenny Vaccaro, S, Texas; Xavier Rhodes, CB, Florida State; Desmond Trufant, CB, Washington
15. New Orleans, Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georgia – The Saints are moving to a 3-4 and need outside linebackers. Others to consider: Fluker; Alex Ogletree, LB, Georgia
16. St. Louis, D.J. Fluker, OT/G, Alabama – The Rams covet Austin, but he’s long gone. They have another first-round pick to address safety or wide receiver and take the best remaining offensive lineman instead. Others to consider: Vaccaro; Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee
17. Pittsburgh, Xavier Rhodes, CB, Florida State – With Jones gone, the Steelers will wait on an OLB prospect. Cordarrelle Patterson is too raw, and this draft is deep in receivers. Kenny Vaccarro would be a consideration, but Rhodes can play corner or safety. Others to consider: Vacarro; Patterson; Arthur Brown, LB, Kansas State; DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Clemson
18. Dallas, Kenny Vacarro, S, Texas – With the top offensive linemen gone, the Cowboys grab the top safety on the board. Others to consider: Menelik Watson, OT, Florida State; Matt Elam, S, Florida
19. N.Y. Giants, Bjoern Werner, DE, Florida State – Werner is the best pass rusher still available and the Giants love pass rushers. Others to consider: Watson; Trufant
20. Chicago, Alec Ogletree, LB, Georgia – After losing Brian Urlacher and Nick Roach, the Bears need linebacker help. An offensive lineman would work as well. Others to consider: Watson
21. Cincinnati, Matt Elam, S, Florida – The Bengals need safety help badly, though another receiver also would fill a need. Others to consider: Watson; Patterson
22. St. Louis, Cordarelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee – Patterson is raw, but has outstanding speed. The Rams have to give Sam Bradford somebody to get the ball to at some point. Others to consider: Elam; Justin Hunter, WR, Tennessee; DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Clemson
23. Minnesota, Desmond Trufant, CB, Washington – The Vikings could go for a receiver here, but corner is a pressing need as well. Others to consider: Hopkins; Sylvester Williams, DT, North Carolina
24. Indianapolis, Datone Jones, DE, UCLA – The offense is good, but the defense needs some pass rush help. Others to consider: Watson; Jamar Taylor, CB, Boise State
25. Minnesota, Sylvester Williams, DT, North Carolina – Once a strong point, the Vikings’ run defense hasn’t been as good recently. Others to consider: Hopkins; Hunter; Jonathan Hankins, DT, Ohio State
26. Green Bay, Tyler Eifert, TE, Notre Dame – Yes, Jermichael Finley is back for one more season, but the Packers need a long-term answer at TE. Eifert could be that option. Others to consider: Hokpins, Hunter; Alex Okafor, LB/DE Texas
27. Houston, DeAndre Hokpins, WR, Clemson – The Texans have been searching for a second receiving option to Andre Johnson for years. They get a good one in Hokpins. Others to consider: Hunter; Robert Woods, WR, USC
28. Denver, Jonathan Hankins, DT, Ohio State – The Broncos need to bolster the middle of their defense. Others to consider: Tank Carradine, DE, Florida State; Kevin Minter, ILB, LSU
29. New England, Jamar Taylor, CB, Boise State – Taylor didn’t get the pre-draft talk like some of the other corners, but he’s a feisty playmaker. Others to consider: Carradine; Margus Hunt, DE, SMU
30. Atlanta, Tank Carradine, DE, Florida State – Carradine tore his ACL in November, but is healing well. He would have been a top 15 pick if completely healthy. Others to consider: Hunt; Okafor
31. San Francisco, Jonathan Cyprien, S, Florida International – The 49ers don’t have a lot of needs, but safety is one of them. Others to consider: Brown; Jesse Williams, DT, Alabama
32. Baltimore, Justin Hunter, WR, Tennessee – Everyone knows how the Ravens like to throw deep. Baltimore passes on an obvious need at ILB and goes for another home run threat on offense. Others to consider: Brown, Ogletree, Minter


Unknown said...

Jarvis Jones can't go to two teams. I think you meant Ogletree the second time.

Viktor said...

I beg to differ Sir, Jarvis Jones is that good.

I would think they take a WR before a DB.

Dale Lolley said...

Right. Should have read Ogletree. Got Georgia linebackers on the brain

Pistol said...

Glad you mentioned Rhodes being able to play safety. I think he would be a good corner but a great safety based on what i have seen on him.

Anonymous said...

Dale, it seems as though you like Hopkins more than the other receivers in this draft class and I agree with you 100%. I haven't seen him predicted by you in any of your mock drafts. Do you feel the steelers think he is a reach at 17?

Anonymous said...

Curious as the why you think Rhodes could play safety? He is clearly a Man Press corner. And while I think Rhodes is the best corner in draft, and a top 5 talent (Revis-esque), he is certainly not a schematic fit for a team that primarily runs zone/off man schemes.

And since the Steelers have shown no indication of changing schematically, I don't see Rhodes as a fit. If we change schematically, the pick is a steal.

Rhodes as a safety? Who did you get that idea from? I recommend not listening to them anymore.

Dale Lolley said...

Rhodes can definitely play safety, particularly strong.

As for the Steelers, they have played some press - much more so than in the past. They mix it up. They are not simply a three-deep zone team any more.

Dale Lolley said...

To put it better, Xavier Rhodes is Ike Taylor with hands.

Patrick said...

If you don't mind me over-analyzing and perhaps rambling for a minute:

I see this draft going one of three ways (i) Vaccaro is not on the board and J. Jones is, (ii) Vaccaro and Jones are both on the board or (iii) trade down, possibly with both or either on the board.

I think Vaccaro is their pick if he is there and they don't bite on a trade.

With a gun to my head, I say they trade down to late round 1/early round 2 picking up a 2nd or early 3rd and do whatever they have to do to secure Kevin Minter (maybe trade again up a few spots to secure him) and then go the best S or WR, and I'll guess those are Philip Thomas and Quinton Patton.

I really expect them to trade up at some point to secure a RB in the first half of the 3rd. And I think that back will be Le'Veon Bell.

Anonymous said...

If there was a tell in yesterday's presser, it's that they have 25 open roster spots to fill this weekend. And only 8 picks. Visitors list is incomplete this year. Some teams, like the Steelers, use predraft visits to give them an advantage in signing UDFAs. Demonstrates serious interest, establishes a relationship, gets their foot in the door. But of the known prospects, maybe one or two could potentially go undrafted. Unusual for them. Makes me think they'll try to gather additional picks in the draft by trading down. Most of their visitors are middling projections.

Visits haven't exactly been the tell they once were. At least for the first round. But perhaps it still has a few illuminating embers still burning. This year and last, the Steelers have gone into the draft with holes to fill. Unusual for them. This year, more holes than last. Last year, lost Farrior-Hoke-Kemo, and Starks was unsigned and recovering from surgery. First 4 picks were OG, OT, ILB, NT. 4 of 22 potential positions, or 18%. Yet those positions made up a disproportionate/roughly two-thirds of their visitors.

This year, they cut Harrison loose. Spence is purportedly considered a loss. Lost both backup safeties (and the two starters are not-fer-long). Down 2 RBs, a tackle and 2 IOLs,one WR.

Their visitor list this year: 4 RBs, 8 LBs, 5 safeties, 3 WRs, 4 CBs.

The oddball in that is CB, since they kinda offset Lewis with Gay. And OL is conspicuously absent the visits.

If I were to hazard a guess, I'd say they go safety, LB, WR, RB in whatever order R1-4 and bring back Legursky and Starks post-draft sometime. And a trade back, either in R1 or R2 to pick up additional R3/R4 picks.

Anonymous said...

Completing an unfinished thought from above, just saying I highly doubt they sign 17 UDFAs over the weekend to round out those 25 open spots. Seems 10 to 12 is a lot most years.

Anonymous said...

"If I were to hazard a guess, I'd say they go safety, LB, WR, RB in whatever order R1-4 and bring back Legursky and Starks post-draft sometime"

I totally agree with this. They just don't value CBs enough in this scheme to draft them that early, and Rhodes is a bad fit for the Fire Zone anyway.