Saturday, April 06, 2013

Three weeks out mock draft

I completed my first mock draft of the year a couple of weeks ago - much to the consternation of some - and now that we're about three weeks out from this year's draft, it's time to throw some more stuff against the wall and see what sticks.

Understand that mock drafts are just that - mock. It's what could happen in certain scenarios once teams start picking. And often times, things change from week to week.

Editor's note: This mock was done BEFORE Keenan Allen ran a 4.71 40 at his pro day. Obviously, he is no longer a first-round consideration.

Anyway, here we go:

1. Kansas City, Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M - No reason to change from my original draft here.
2. Jacksonville, Sharrif Floyd, DT, Florida State - Jacksonville could go a lot of different ways with defenders.
3. Oakland, Ezekial Ensah, DE, BYU - The Raiders have been known to grab workout warriors in recent years. Ensah has a ton of potential.
4. Philadelphia, Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia - The Eagles seem the likely destination for Smith.
5. Detroit, Eric Fisher, OT, Central Michigan - With Jeff Backus done, the Lions have to protect their investment at QB.
6. Cleveland, Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama - The Browns would have two very good young corners.
7. Arizona, Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma - Any offensive line help is needed in Arizona.
8. Buffalo, Matt Barkley, QB, USC - So much for quarterbacks not being a priority in this draft. Kevin Kolb is not the long-term answer.
9. N.Y. Jets, Dion Jordan, OLB, Oregon - The Jets have been searching for pass rushers seemingly since Klecko and Gastineau retired.
10. Tennessee, Chance Warmack, G, Alabama - Warmack is more of a sure thing than some of the guys taken ahead of him. But he's also a guard.
11. San Diego, Jonathan Cooper, G, North Carolina - The Chargers line was a mess last season. Cooper can play guard or center.
12. Miami, Xavier Rhodes, CB, Florida State - The Dolphins have filled a lot of holes, but need to get better in the secondary.
13. Tampa Bay, Desmond Trufant, CB, Washington - Tampa Bay's secondary needs an influx of talent.
14. Carolina, Star Lotulelei, DT, Utah - The Panthers get some beef up front.
15. New Orleans, Jarvis Jones, LB, Georgia - Jones' neck issues are scaring some teams away, but his pass rushing ability can't be denied. The Saints are moving to a 3-4.
16. St. Louis, Tavon Austin, WR, West Virginia - To steal a Todd Grahamism, speed, speed, speed.
17. Pittsburgh, Keenan Allen, WR, California - Something about Allen reminds me of when the Steelers selected Heath Miller in the draft. Miller was unable to work out for teams during the offseason due to a sports hernia and fell into Pittsburgh's lap. Allen was considered the top WR in this draft but has been unable to work out due to injuries - though he is scheduled to do so April 9. He has size and is polished.
18. Dallas, Kenny Vaccaro, S, Texas - It's no secret the Cowboys are looking for safety help. And no, Will Allen is not the answer.
19. N.Y. Giants, Bjoern Werner, DE, Florida State - The Giants love to college pass rushers.
20. Chicago, D.J. Fluker, OT, Alabama - The Bears need to do a better job of protecting the quarterback.
21. Cincinnati, Barkevious Mingo, LB/DE, LSU - Mingo is the type of lanky pass rusher who fits into what the Bengals are doing defensively.
22. St. Louis, Matt Elam, S, Florida - The Rams want to come out of their two first round picks with a WR and safety.
23. Minnesota, Sheldon Richardson, DT, Missouri - The Vikings were a premiere run-stopping team for many years but have slipped of late.
24. Indianapolis, Cordarelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee - Patterson has speed and size but is very raw.
25. Minnesota, Robert Woods, WR, USC - Woods is silky smooth and has good size.
26. Green Bay, Damontre Moore, OLB, Texas A&M - The Packers need somebody to provide a pass rush other than Clay Matthews.
27. Houston, DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Clemson - The Texans need a No. 2 option on the outside.
28. Denver, Jonathan Hankins, DT, Ohio State - The Broncos are in a win-now mode and Hankins should help their run defense right away.
29. New England, Datone Jones, DE, UCLA - Jones just seems like a Belichick-type of pick. Smart, effort guy.
30. Atlanta, Tyler Eifert, TE, Notre Dame - Atlanta needs to groom somebody to replace Tony Gonzalez.
31. San Francisco, Jonathan Cyprien, S, Florida International - The 49ers don't have a lot of needs, but safety could be considered one.
32. Baltimore, Kevin Minter, ILB, LSU - The Ravens need help at inside linebacker and get a thumper.

21 comments:

kyle said...

The pick of Richardson to Minnesota makes a lot of sense. I just heard a scout describe him as being similar to Pat Williams (they can only hope).

I don't think there's a single WR or pass-rusher I like at 17. I think Keenan Allen has been injured a lot more in his college career than Heath Miller was.

Anonymous said...

I hope the Steelers draft Keenan Allen, just to hear the clowns in the local media call him "Keenan Lewis" a million times.

Anonymous said...

Just don't see the Steelers going for a wr in the first. It's not their style and Haley's offense is different than Arians - a "field stretcher" is a nice-to-
have, not a need-to-have.

Much more likely, imho, is either a DB or LB.

Chris said...

But the last WR they drafted coming off an injury worked out well. That was sarcasm. (It did not work out well.)

Dale Lolley said...

It's not their style to take a WR in the first?
Charles Johnson, Plaxico Burress, Troy Edwards and Santonio Holmes would beg to differ.

That's four in 20 years, or one every five years. They have taken one linebacker in the first round in that same period, and he was an inside backer.

Steve-O said...

I agree that they go WR in the first but I still think it will be Patterson and not Allen. The kid just has way more upside and history has shown us the front office has demonstrated a willingness to take them young/raw.

Patrick said...

Allen I can see, Patterson I can't.

If its not Allen, I expect the WR to come in two or three. There are a lot of them in this draft.

Trade down seems like the best option at this point, but you only have that option if its available and make sense. I have no problem taking the best ILB not named Ogltetree at 17 or a position not exactly of the greatest need but with good value (TE/OL/DL) relative to rounds two and three. I wouldn't even mind Cyprien at 17 even though that is probably 15 picks too high for him.

My thought is, I'd rather reach for safety than miss at a need (this is assuming a trade down isn't a viable option). Austin at WR and Jones at OL could be big misses. Patterson is too raw at WR and seems more risky to me than the guys available in 2-3.

Patrick said...

by "reach for safety" i meant a safe pick, not reach for a safety

Anonymous said...

WRs are a dime a dozen. The Steelers won't spend a 1st round pick on one, imo. They have far greater needs esp at S where both starters are over 30, have had injury problems the past several years and there is virtually no one to groom as a replacement behind them.

Whack said...

I believe the Steeler's need at WR is greater than S...

we have two starting caliber Safties... not sure we have two starting caliber Wide Receivers...

just my opinion...

Patrick said...

I wouldn't be surprised if there is a game this year where they aren't with both Clark and Polamalu.

Clark is a concussion away from being seriously sidelined and Polamalu is of course oft injured.

And 2014 they might not have neither. If they do, they will both be well past their prime.

Dale Lolley said...

I would agree whack. Plus, they have to look at the possibility that Sanders doesn't re-sign here or they choose not to re-sign him at the end of the season.
If that's that case, they're better off with a young stud receiver already on board.
They've proven over the years that they can find free safeties anywhere. Strong safety is a little different.

Patrick said...

But they've also found WR's anywhere too. Wallace and Sanders in Round 3, Brown in Round 6, Ward was a 3rd I believe. They won a SB with Cedric friggin Wilson. Nate Washington was undrafted.

The only WR's in the first that were good were Plex, who had his years but was never elite as a Steeler and Holmes who basically won them a Super Bowl and then smoked himself out of town.

But Troy Edwards, Charles Johnson, Limas Sweed all were awful high WR picks . So I think that argument goes both ways.

Its extremely likely both a S and a WR are picked in the first three rounds. My point originally is that I'd rather have the safe pick in Rd 1 when there is a deep WR class and there isn't a huge talent gap between the Wideout you get in Rd 1 and Rd 2. Or possibly even Rd 3.

Keenan Allen, though, I think is a very good pick at 17. Patterson and Austin I don't like.

marc said...

seems to me that if history shows anything, the steelers will move up in the first if they feel there is a special player to be had, i.e. polamalu and holmes, regardless of position. otherwise, they will take the BPA on their board.

and who knows, they never thought roethlisberger would fall to them. if a couple high pick guys drop down, then that forces other guys down the ladder too. at 17, the steelers may have a handful of very good players to choose from. it will be fun to watch.

kyle said...

The depth at safety is possibly even greater than the depth at wide receiver and the talent gap from round one to round two seems to be similar as well.

I don't like Austin's position (17 is mighty high for a slot receiver/jack of all trades). I don't like Patterson's head (most football players are dumb to some degree but when multiple people make it a point to mention it, you must be especially not bright). And I don't like Allen's health (he's missed games and he hasn't been healthy yet this offseason).

Vaccaro doesn't seem like enough of a playmaker for that high of a pick. There are things I don't like about almost all of the guys who might be available at 17. The guards and tackles I can only come up with "they've spent high picks on those positions recently" which bothers me less than "this guy is dumb/hurt/small/unexciting/lazy"

Pistol said...

Well there goes Allen at 17. No way they will pick a 4.7 guy that high. I like Hopkings and Austin better anyway.

Dale Lolley said...

At this point, I would move Hopkins into that spot, with Justin Hunter being the wildcard.
I'm just not sold on Patterson

Pistol said...

Dale,

Do you think they will be picking multiple receivers in this draft??? Should i give up my hope for swope/harper or vernon??

Anonymous said...

I agree with Dale, Hopkins is a beast and I'd rather him and Austin ahead of Allen. I'm still hoping for Jarvis jones at 17 but if he's not there Hopkins or Austin would be great picks

Dale Lolley said...

I think they could take multiple receivers, given the age of the guys they have and Sanders' contract situation.

I don't see multiple safeties since they like Robert Golden.

Patrick said...

I agree with everything you said kyle, but I think the safeties near round 1 are safer than the WR's that early.

Maybe we're all wrong and they take Lacey. I have no clue which way they are leaning. Its an interesting year for the draft, really can't predict the top 5, let alone round 1.