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Wednesday, April 17, 2013

One week out mock draft

Without any clear-cut stars at the skill positions, the 2013 NFL Draft could prove to be one of the more interesting in years. Here’s one look at how things could go in the first round next Thursday:

1. Kansas City, Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M - The Chiefs have a lot of needs - obviously - but Joeckel is considered perhaps the safest pick in this draft. Others to consider: Shariff Floyd, DT, Florida; Eric Fisher, OT, Central Michigan

2. Jacksonville, Dion Jordan, OLB/DE, Oregon - The Jaguars want to be like Seattle and build with speed. Jordan is a pure speed rusher. Others to consider: Shariff Floyd, DT, Florida; Fisher

3. Oakland, Shariff Floyd, DT, Florida - After getting rid of Richard Seymour and Tommy Kelly, this is an obvious need pick for the Raiders. Others to consider: Fisher, Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia

4. Philadelphia, Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia - New head coach Chip Kelly wants to run the spread. Smith gives him a top-rated QB to build with while Michael Vick starts one more season. Others to consider: Fisher; Milliner; Ziggy Ansah, DE, BYU

5. Detroit, Eric Fisher, OT, Central Michigan - Dee Milliner or Ziggy Ansah make sense here as well, but the Lions have to protect Matt Stafford. Others to consider: Milliner, Ansah

6. Cleveland, Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama - The Browns get a second top-notch corner to pair with Joe Hayden. Others to consider: Ansah

7. Arizona, Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma - The Cardinals have been awful protecting the quarterback the past two seasons. Others to consider: Ansah, Chance Warmack, G, Alabama

8. Buffalo, Tavon Austin, WR, West Virginia - It’s too early for another quarterback here. Two WVU players in the top 10? That’s how good the offense was in 2012. About that defense ... Others to consider: Ansah

9. N.Y. Jets, Star Lotulelei, DT, Utah - The Jets lost Sione Pouha this offseason and replaced him with a 33-year-old Antonio Garay. Rex Ryan would also like to beef up the pass rush, but Lotulelei could be too good to pass up. Others to consider: Ansah; Barkevious Mingo, OLB, LSU

10. Tennessee, Chance Warmack, G, Alabama - Ansah’s fall continues as teams pass on potential for immediate needs. Warmack will help clear a path for Chris Johnson. Others to consider: Ansah; Jonathan Cooper, G, North Carolina

11. San Diego, Jonathan Cooper, G, North Carolina - The Chargers need offensive line help, though Ansah could make sense here, too. Others to consider: Ansah; Mingo; Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georgia

12. Miami, Ziggy Ansah, DE/OLB, BYU - The Dolphins could trade up to get ahead of Arizona and grab Johnson. If not, Ansah would be too good to pass up in this scenario. Others to consider: Mingo, Jones, D.J. Fluker, OT, Alabama

13. Tampa Bay, Sheldon Richardson, DT, Missouri - If the Bucs don’t trade this pick for Darrelle Revis, Richardson makes the most sense. Others to consider: Xavier Rhodes, CB, Florida State; Bjoern Werner, DE, Florida State

14. Carolina, Xavier Rhodes, CB, Florida State - After releasing Chris Gamble, the Panthers have a need at CB. They like Richardson as well, be he doesn’t drop to them here. Others to consider: Kenny Vaccaro, S, Texas; Desmond Trufant, CB, Washington

15. New Orleans, Barkevious Mingo, OLB, LSU - The Saints are moving to a 3-4 defense and Mingo gives them a speed rusher on the outside. Others to consider: Jones; Fluker

16. St. Louis, D.J. Fluker, OT/G, Alabama - The Rams covet Austin, but he’s long gone. They have another first-round pick to address safety or wide and take the best remaining offensive lineman instead. Others to consider: Vaccaro; Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee

17. Pittsburgh, Jarvis Jones, OLB, Georgia - This is a deep draft for receivers and safeties, two of the Steelers’ other top needs, and it’s too early to take a running back, the final big need. Jones might be the top pure pass rusher in the draft. Others to consider: Vaccaro; Patterson; Arthur Brown, LB, Kansas State

18. Dallas, Kenny Vaccaro, S, Texas - With the top offensive linemen gone, the Cowboys grab the top safety. Others to consider: Menelik Watson, OT, Florida State; Jonathan Cyprien, S, Florida International

19. N.Y. Giants, Bjoern Werner, DE, Florida State - Werner is the best pass rusher still available and the Giants love pass rushers. Others to consider: Watson; Trufant

20. Chicago, Arthur Brown, LB, Kansas State - After allowing both Brian Urlacher and Nick Roach, the Bears need linebacker help. An offensive lineman would as well. Others to consider: Watson; Alec Ogletree, LB, Georgia

21. Cincinnati, Jonathan Cyprien, S, Florida International - Cyprien opened eyes on the all-star circuit and isn’t just another small-school prospect. Others to consider: Matt Elam, S, Florida; Watson; Patterson

22. St. Louis, Cordarelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee - Patterson is raw, but has outstanding speed. The Rams have to give Sam Bradford somebody to get the ball to at some point. Others to consider: Elam; Justin Hunter, WR, Tennessee; DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Clemson

23. Minnesota, Desmond Trufant, CB, Washington - The Vikings could go for a receiver here, but corner is a pressing need as well. Others to consider: Hopkins; Sylvester Williams, DT, North Carolina

24. Indianapolis, Datone Jones, DE, UCLA - The offense is good, but the defense needs some pass rush help. Others to consider: Watson, Jamar Taylor, CB, Boise State

25. Minnesota, Sylvester Williams, DT, North Carolina - Once a strong point, the Vikings’ run defense hasn’t been as good recently. Others to consider: Hopkins; Hunter; Jonathan Hankins, DT, Ohio State

26. Green Bay, Tyler Eifert, TE, Notre Dame - Yes, Jermichael Finley is back for one more season, but the Packers need a long-term answer at TE. Eifert could be that option. Others to consider: Hokpins, Hunter; Alex Okafor, LB/DE Texas

27. Houston, DeAndre Hokpins, WR, Clemson - The Texans have been searching for a second receiving option to Andre Johnson for years. They get a good one in Hokpins. Others to consider: Hunter; Robert Woods, WR, USC

28. Denver, Jonathan Hankins, DT, Ohio State - The Broncos need to bolster the middle of their defense. Others to consider: Tank Carradine, DE, Florida State; Kevin Minter, ILB, LSU

29. New England, Jamar Taylor, CB, Boise State - Taylor didn’t get the pre-draft talk like some of the other corners, but he’s a feisty playmaker. Others to consider: Carradine; Margus Hunt, DE, SMU

30. Atlanta, Tank Carradine, DE, Florida State - Carradine tore his ACL in November, but is healing well. He would have been a top-15 pick if completely healthy. Others to consider: Hunt; Okafor

31. San Francisco, Matt Elam, S, Florida - The 49ers don’t have a lot of needs, but safety is one of them. Others to consider: Eric Reid, S, LSU; Jesse Williams, DT, Alabama

32. Baltimore, Justin Hunter, WR, Tennessee - Everyone knows how the Ravens like to throw deep. Baltimore passes on an obvious need at ILB and goes for another home run threat on offense. Others to consider: Ogletree, Minter


marc said...

if jones, vaccaro, and patterson were all available at number 17 then i don't the steelers could really go wrong. they would all be nice 1st round picks.

Steve-O said...

When you look at Jones, Vaccaro, and Patterson you have to assess which of the three is the most impactful. I think Jones with his sack ability and Patterson with his ability to score as a rusher, receiver, kick returner and punt returner move ahead of Vaccaro. For my money I like Patterson's contributions the most. If Worilds weren't so young I might go the other way but I think he still has the potential to be a very nice OLB.

marc said...

i don't disagree with your logic. but from a long term planning perspective, they are long in the tooth at the safety positions and need viable replacements to be ready in the next couple years, in my opinion. therfore, is the draft deep enough to grab a safety in the 2nd or 3rd round? do you hope to grab a top safety next year instead? tough questions for the steelers.

John Kang said...

I dunno, with all of James Harrison's back problems, I am not sure if I would want a pass rusher who has spinal stenosis.

Dale Lolley said...

I'm not a huge fan of jones because of the spinal issue, but I could see the Steelers going this way.

I really don't like Patterson. To me, the safest of the group is Vaccaro. But this is a deep safety group.

The same can be said of WR. The draft is deep with them.

But premium pass rushers are not a dime a dozen.

Plus, Worilds will be a free agent at the end of the season.

Anonymous said...

Idk what u guys are talking about. How can u not like Jarvis Jones? He's been cleared to play by every dr. Who examined him (besides USC 4 years ago) anyone on any given day could have a career ending injury. Everyone seems fine with Worilds when he is the most injury prone linebacker I've ever seen, he can't make it out of training camp for god sake. For everyone who isn't a fan a jones please watch game film of this guy, not a highlight reel but actual game tape. He's a stud in every aspect of the game

Anonymous said...

A LB in the 1st is a wasted pick in my opinion. At least for the next 2 years. Realistically, with this history we have with this team, if we pick a LB here he won't start until 2015. We should have at least 1 immediate starter in the first 3 rounds...

Anonymous said...

Then WR or RB is your only option

Pistol said...

I would absolutely hate that pick but they are just screwed right now unless they trade down. I would still take Werner but he prob doesnt have the "Swagga" Tomlin loves. Truthfully Dale how much influence does he have???

I just want them to take some future leaders, guys w character for the most part and ill be happy.

Dale Lolley said...

Is that code for something racist, Pistol?

Werner is a clone of Woodley, in my opinion. Nothing wrong with that, but they need at least one OLB who can drop into coverage on occasion.

The only "open" spot they have is at running back. There isn't a running back worthy of being taken at 17.

Anonymous said...

Is there a road-grader, Hampton clone available, Dale?

Anonymous said...

There are no Hamptons in this class, in my mind.

If Jones is there at #17, the Steelers better be having an intern sprint to the podium with the card. If years of tape in the SEC isn't enough to prove that the stenosis isn't slow him down, I dunno what is.

There's a small group of players in this crop that can legitimately be discussed as "best potential player in this draft class.' Jones is among them. If he's available, you draft him.

Pistol said...

No its just a characteristic imo unless i dont understand the meaning.
I like guys who dont have to tell me how great they are every time they make a play but thats preference.

After 5 all the players are pretty even til around 50-60 no? I would still take Hopkins or Werner personally. If it was your pick who would you take?

Anonymous said...

Pistol, what is it exactly u don't like about jones? I mean no disrespect but u must not know football if "u would absolutely hate that pick" he stuffs the run, sheds blocks, pressures the qb better than anyone in the draft class, he's been cleared to play by doctors. WATCH THE GAME TAPE

Pistol said...

I dont like that he is slow and has a medical history that is pretty serious. He looks like a Buck to me and while i like his intangibles i feel there are many better options.(Werner, A.Brown or Vaccaro)
When i see his film it looks like his take on skills are crap and he gets rag dolled A LOT!! Dude does not stuff the run at all.
Just my opinion tho

Pistol said...

All in all if they put him at Buck or Mack i'd be good w it because he hustles and could be free to run and hit. Def the type of guy you want in the locker room too.

Mike said...

I have nothing against Jones, but we already have several young OLB's - Worilds, Carter, Robinson. Compare that to having only Golden as a safety backup or having only Brown and Gilreath signed past this year at WR. OLB is just a much lower priority.

kyle said...

While his production in the SEC cannot be ignored, if you think Jarvis Jones "stuffs the run" then I'm not sure what tape you are watching. He was run at plenty. He got handled by single blocks plenty. He got beat badly by tight ends in more than one game. I won't pull my hair out over Jones, Vaccaro, or Patterson...or even Eifert but I don't think any of those guys are worth the 17th pick.

Of all the years for the Steelers to have a top 20 pick, it had to be a draft with single-digit surefire players.

datruth4life said...

Dale, I've narrowed down my 4 for the Steelers at pick no. 17 as C. Patterson, K. Vacarro, J. Jones and B. Werner. All have their pluses and minuses. If this scenario is the case, then maybe the Steelers would trade down a couple of spots and pick up an extra 3rd and still grab 1 of the 4Of the 4 mentioned above, I am probably most weary of J. Jones due to his spinal condition and the fact that he's 245 lbs, runs in the 4.9s and only could do 20 bench presses at 225. Charlie Casserly said he's yet to see anyone in the league at Jones' size running in the 4.9s being productive at OLB in this league. Vacarro is probably your safest pick and would definitely serve a need. Patterson has the most upside as well as some bust factor. But I think the bust part can be somewhat mitigated by the fact that he could be your no. 1 KR & PR from Day one and, with the resigning of Sanders, Haley could keep things simple for the kid and put him in pkgs where he can stretch the field or just be given the ball in space. I'm still intrigued by B. Werner because I think he gives you another quality pass rusher without all the red flags that J. Jones brings to the table. In looking at Werner, I just see someone who is going to give you 10 to 12 sacks a season from that ROLB after he gets a year to learn the system and someone who anchor in the run game. Great motor and still a lot of upside since he's coming out as a junior and has only played football for a few years. My biggest concerns with Werner are if he can drop in coverage and if he can lose 10 lbs and play at 255 to 260 lbs (he currently weights 266) or will end up putting on 20 lbs in a few years and be a 4-3 or 3-4 DE. I think he adds a different skill set to the Steelers pass rush. Worilds, Carter, and Robinson are your more quick twitch types while Werner and Woodley have more size, power, and anchor better in the run. So out of those 4 picks, I'd probably rank them as:

1) S Vacarro
2) OLB B. Werner
3) WR/KR/PR C. Patterson
4) OLB J. Jones

Dale Lolley said...

I just don't see enough explosive quick-twitch from Werner. He's a good player, to be sure, but I don't know if he would be fluid enough to play OLB. He looks like a DE to me.

I wouldn't love the Jones pick, but I could see why they would make it. The production can't be ignored.

And as I said before, this is a deep draft for WRs and safeties.

Tom said...

Well, I'm officially talked out of Jones and Patterson thanks to this thread. Vaccaro seems to be the clear cut safest selection. An apprentice year under Clark and Troy would certainly not hurt the kid's development.

On the other hand, I am personally not holding out hope that one of the teams picking into the top ten this year wouldn't be willing to trade back into the first to pick up Geno Smith. I could see the Eagles making a drastic move, Chip Kelly eager to win now and seeing that starting rookie QB's has been recently a successful trend. I think we see a lot of movement up by teams to get their preferred signal caller. Steelers would have to be thrilled to get a call from one of those teams. Could end up with 5 of the top 100 picks this year and a coveted second day pick in 2014's reportedly much stronger draft.

Viktor said...

For a first rounder I would imagine you would want an IMPACT player as oppose to a SAFE pick.

I've heard reports saying Werner would not be able to cover very well due to his lack of smooth hip movement.

Do you like Mingo Dale?

I think a tier 1 WR would be able to contribute in the return game also and would be the deciding factor over Vacarro.

Anonymous said...

With how deep this draft is, and without a sure top, I see very little movement worth teams trading picks.

Anonymous said...

I guess I don't fully understand the idea of a player "not worth a pick at 17." If he's the right player for what you want to do and fits the system and is a good character guy, wouldn't he be worth the pick? We sit here and debate the value of players, but if it's true that there's not a lot of difference between players at pick 15-50, then who's to say a player is a reach or a value pick? Last year Seattle supposedly reached on Bruce Irvin in the 1st, but it was worth it to them and seems to have worked out okay.

Having said that, I'd love Eifert at 17. Supposedly too soon to take a TE, but is a playmaker and gives some cushion while Heath recovers. Spaeth is not that guy and never will be. Once Heath is back we have a Gronk/Hernandez type of combo to add to our WR's. He can block inline, catch, and makes mismatches all over the place. We can take Safety in the second. I'd love to see a WR like Swope in the 3rd, or possibly RB. That would add some offensive weapons to Haley's system. OLB in the 4th and from there you take BPA to fill in the depth chart. But what the heck do I know? I just read blogs during work breaks.

Anonymous said...

Ugh...I hate how many experts are predicting Jones (no offense Dale - I know he wouldn't be your choice or Wex's). If he ends up being the pick, I think I might join the bandwagon of people questioning what the heck Colbert and Tomlin are doing. I know hindsight is 20/20, but there have been some bad decisions the last few years, and not just draft-wise. If they wanted to take a high risk first pick, I'd rather they went with that knucklehead Patterson, especially knowing that Sanders is most likely gone next year. It's not like they have a great history picking OLB's in the first anyway, and it's questionable how well Jones would fit their system, not to mention the whole medical issue.

kyle said...

A player "isn't worth the pick at 17" when you can get that same player later and possibly add draft picks. That is the problem with a reach. Bruce Irvin was apparently not much of a reach since the Jets admitted they had him slated for their pick. He was undervalued by the draftniks while the teams had him going mid-1st.

Dale Lolley said...

I like Jones better than Mingo. Mingo has everything Jones doesn't in terms of length and speed, but where's the production?

Jones doesn't scare me as much as other guys because he actually played linebacker in college. It's not a projection. He was productive in a good conference. But his speed and neck issue scare me. There's no doubting he's a football player, though. I just wonder if he fits the scheme completely because of the lack of speed.

Vaccaro would be a guy who also fills an immediate need since he could play in the nickel while also backing up a pair of aging safeties. That's a "safe" pick because you know what you're getting. But hey, maybe Cyprien has gotten then attention as well.

Eifert would be a "safe" pick as well. But do you really need two first-round tight ends? I don't think so.

Patterson has some off-field issues that concern me. Haven't heard anything concrete, but you keep hearing "whispers" about off-field stuff with him. I'm also leary of JC guys who had one season of production.

Dale Lolley said...

Here's a post from Bob McGinn - if you don't check out his stuff on the draft, you should - on Patterson:

2. CORDARRELLE PATTERSON, Tennessee (6-2, 217, 4.34, 1) - Junior-college transfer from Rock Hill, S.C. "Really competitive, really athletic, really raw," one scout said. "When he catches the ball he never gives up on a run. He might drive people crazy because he will back up, he will run laterally, he will do whatever. I thought he caught it well." Played just one season of major-college football before declaring a year early. Caught 46 passes for 778 yards (16.9) and five TDs. "No, heavens no," exclaimed another scout when asked if Patterson was as good as Dez Bryant. "I don't know that he's not as athletic as Dez, but Dez is freakish strength-wise. He could be really good but he's not very smart." Should be a threat returning kickoffs while learning how to play on offense. "He's the best returner I've seen since Devin Hester," a third scout said. "He's got a background that's a little bit scary but, boy, is he explosive."

If it were me, I'd rather have Justin Hunter.

Viktor said...

Hmm, thanks for that info on Patterson; does not sound like he is some one the Steelers would gamble on especially in the first round.

Scott said...

This should be noted too from the McGinn article -

"The Journal Sentinel asked 16 personnel people to list their top five wide receivers and top four tight ends. At wide receiver, a first-place vote was worth five points, a second was worth four and so on.

Patterson (seven firsts) led with 62 points, followed by Austin, 60 (six firsts); Allen, 40 (one first); Woods, 25; DeAndre Hopkins, 24 (one first); Hunter, 16; Terrance Williams, five; and Stedman Bailey and Quinton Patton, each four."