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Wednesday, April 27, 2011

Steelers draft odds

Here's my feeling on the odds on who will be the Steelers' top pick Thursday when the NFL draft begins:

Aaron Williams, DB, Texas (2:1) - The odds on favorite if he falls. Though Williams ran in the mid-4.5 range at the combine and looked stiff in the hips, he was much quicker, sub-4.4, at Texas' pro day. His size also gives him an edge over Miami's Brandon Harris. Williams could eventually shift to free safety to replace Ryan Clark.

Brandon Harris, CB, Miami (Fla.) (4:1) - There's a chance Williams won't be available when the Steelers pick. Harris is the draft's next best corner and has a lot of upside. At 5-9 1/2, he's lacking in ideal size, however.

Derek Sherrod, OT, Mississippi State (6:1) - Sherrod is the most likely of the linemen to fall, not counting Danny Watkins, who's just too damned old. He would tempt the Steelers despite their DB need.

Cameron Heyward, DE, Ohio State (6:1) - If Williams and Sherrod are gone, it could come down to Harris or Heyward. The defensive line isn't the glaring need that the secondary is.

Trade down (8:1) - There will be a number of teams looking to move up from the early to mid-second round if they don't take a QB in the first round. The Steelers could slide back 10 to 15 spots and still take a DB such as Virginia's Ras-I Dowling.

Mike Pouncey, G, Florida (10:1) - This would require a trade up, something the Steelers are open to. If he gets past the Giants at 19, Pouncey could be in play for the Steelers. Tampa coach Rahim Morris and Steelers coach Mike Tomlin are very close and the Bucs own the 20th pick.

Rahim Moore, S, UCLA (10:1) - A sleeper pick here. Moore's one of the best playmakers available and was coached by new Steelers defensive backs coach Carnell Lake. Some teams feel he's got the quickness to play corner and he's open to such a move. Like Williams, he ran better at his on-campus workout than he did at the combine.


Anonymous said...

What are your odds on us drafting down? I think Heyward will be a Raven by Friday morning.

Dale Lolley said...

Guess I should have put that in there as well.
I think the Steelers will consider it, but if Williams is there, he'll be the pick.

Anonymous said...

It just came out that Jimmy Smith failed a drug test for codeine at Colorado and also impregnated two girls while there. That probably bumps him out of the first for good and puts Williams out of range for the Steelers. I like the thought of Rahim Moore at 31 if we're looking to eventually shift Williams to S anyways. Moore plays the ball way better.

Smith story:

Patrick said...

If based on that story Williams is taken ahead of Smith then its either trade down or trade up.

If they stay put, they are really getting the same value at 31 that they would get at about 45-50. But you need a partner to trade, so we'll see.

Dale Lolley said...

That news didn't just come out to the teams. They've known about all Smith's problems the entire time. He's got top-15 talent, but he'll still likely be taken in the first round.
As for impregnating girls, if that was a huge problem, half the guys in the league wouldn't have been drafted.

Anonymous said...

can't argue with any of those players Dale, seem really the most likely. Like the darkhorse Moore pick

"The Steelers could slide back 10 to 15 spots and still take a DB such as Virginia's Ras-I Dowling."

Now this is what I'm HOPING for

I like williams at FS, corner not so much, so I hope they do convert him

Robbie said...

Here's my guess at the Steelers' draft board for round 1:

1. M Pouncey
2. G Carimi
3. D Sherrod
4. A Ayers
5. A Williams


6. J Carpenter
7. C Heyward
8. S Paea
9. R Moore
10. B Harris

If someone from the first five falls to 31 they'll take him. Otherwise, they'll attempt to trade down and then move on to the second five (either at 31 or lower if the trade-down is successful).

Dale Lolley said...

I can't argue with that too much Robbie - though I don't know about Ayers.

Robbie said...

I was just going on what Dulac reported (same for Paea). Ayers makes some sense if they really love him because they will need an heir to Farrior and/or Harrison and/or Woodley and/or Timmons in the near future.

But I do know Steelers fans' heads will explode if Ayers is the pick.

datruth4life said...

If 3-4 DE M. Wilkerson is available at no. 31, the Steelers have to take him. He's a better value than A. Williams at that pick and will end up being the better player at a more valuable position.

People can blow all the smoke they want to about Williams. He's a 4.55safety who is a 2nd rounder. The Steelers can trade up in the 2nd round and get the CB that they want and then the best OL on their board in the 3rd.

Dale Lolley said...

I disagree

Steve-O said...

In every draft there is a guy who slides much further than he should have. Somebody will unexpectedly fall to the bottom 3rd of the first round and the Steelers will make a move. I'm guessing that someone will be Mike Pouncey. There are too many "sexy" picks and teams figure they can get an interior lineman in the 2nd/3rd round that will be almost as good.

marc said...

now ras-i dowling in their top 10?

datruth4life said...


What have you seen in A. Williams that makes you think he'll be a great fit for our secondary? Just curious. Usually 4.6 speed and stiff hips don't equate to a game-changer back there. I do trust our scouts, though, Limas Sweed notwithstanding.

marc said...

i meant to say "no ras-i dowling in their top 10?"

meaning, if they trade down, he wouldn't be one they consider?

Dale Lolley said...

That's not their top 10. They rank everyone. I'm sure their top 10 is the same as everyone else's. But those are players who are possible to be available to the Steelers.

Now Williams is a 4.6 corner DaTruth? Come on. Again, he ran a sub-4.4 40 at Texas. Even when you add .1 for the fast track, he's still under 4.5.

marc said...

i guess what i'm asking is that, based on robbie's post, if harris, moore and dowling are available after a trade down they would rate both harris and moore ahead of him?

datruth4life said...


At the combine, stopwatches had him between 4.52 on the high end at 4.62 on low end. The digital clock gave him a 4.55. At his pro day, he ran an unofficial 4.36. Because of the Texas track, that was adjusted .08 upward to give him a 4.44. OK, enough about this kid. I wish him the best.

Do you still feel Williams is the pick at 31 or do you think they could still trade down into the first 6 to 8 picks in the 2nd round and still get him?

Also, Dale, do you feel that Baltimore adding another pass rusher to pair with Suggs in this draft could be the key to Baltimore beating the Steelers this year? I don't care about them getting Jimmy Smith. I think a player like Ryan Kerrigan from Purdue could impact the series a lot more in their favor. Just a thought.

Dale Lolley said...

I think if they're unable to move down and Williams is there, he's going to be the pick.

I don't think Kerrigan will be there when the Ravens pick. As for picking between Dowling and Harris, it's anyone's guess which one they have rated higher.