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Friday, December 18, 2009

Who I like

It's come to this, the Steelers are two-point favorites this week but I'm not sure why.

Maybe they are mad as hell and not going to take it any longer, but they should have been at that stage the past few weeks and it hasn't been the case.

Green Bay's passing game is going to cause the Steelers problems for obvious reasons. They haven't defended the pass very well without Troy Polamalu and don't force any turnovers.

Green Bay's defense is also going to be a tough matchup.

It seems pretty cut and dried to me as I expect the Packers to win, 27-20.

That said, it wouldn't surprise me if the Steelers win since they've been totally unpredictable this season. But I doubt it.


Robbie said...

Call me crazy, but I think the Steelers win this one. The matchup obviously favors the Packers, but Murphy's Law says the Steelers will win now that they're out of playoff contention and would be better off losing out to get a better draft pick. It's been that kind of year.

I could see the Packers coming in overconfident, and Ryan Clark calling out the fans and media might result in an "us against the world" mentality. Now that everyone expects them to lose and the pressure of making the playoffs is gone, I could see them loosen up and play some inspired ball.

If I'm wrong, I'll come back on here and own it.

Ben said...

"now that they're out of playoff contention and would be better off losing out to get a better draft pick. It's been that kind of year."

Neither one of those statements is true.

Dale Lolley said...

They're actually still very much alive - with the exception of needing Baltimore to lose two. But it would also call for them to win three, which at this point seems unlikely.

Robbie said...

As for the first part, I know we're not mathematically eliminated but the chances are remote (I've seen it calculated at under 2%, dependent on us winning out).

As for the second part, what is the downside to drafting closer to #10 than to #20?

Ben said...

If the Steelers win this weekend and Baltimore loses, things will get very interesting. The problem is, I don't see Chicago beating them. Any given Sunday, I guess.

At least we play them again and have a chance to give them one of their two (hopeful) losses.

Really makes you want those KC, Oakland and Cleveland games back. Can't believe how close we were to being 9-4 or even 10-3.

Ben said...

"As for the second part, what is the downside to drafting closer to #10 than to #20?"

The downside is, you never, ever want to lose a game. I don't think any coach in the NFL would favor losses for better draft picks.

Dale Lolley said...

The downside to picking 10 rather than 20 is if you end up doing it year after year, it kills your salary structure. Look at Cleveland or Detroit as an example.
Obviously, the Steelers are not in that situation, but really, in every draft, there are 15 to 20 sure-fire first-round picks. Then there's the next level of 40 or so players.

Patrick said...

I don't care about draft position. They got Miller and Holmes late (I know Holmes they traded up for). The counter argument is Revis/Timmons. I just have a hard time buying into that. Every draft is full of 1st round busts v. studs. The Steelers have a great recent history of 1st round picks. Let them play the games to win and see where they fall.

Related to that, if they win 3, with the rest of the teams schedules, the playoffs are possible still, with a lot of help. Remember the Eagles last year? They needed all the help in the world and a home win against Dallas. They got all the wins they needed at 1pm, which was like 2 or 3 other teams losing unexpectedly, and played the Dallas game at 4 to go to the NFC champioonship.

Like another poster said, just one of these close losses would come along way to making the playoffs possible. Its ashame really. They SHOULD be in serious contention.

Dave in Cbus said...

RE: Patrick
And to be even more specific, the help the Eagles needed was a week 17 loss by Tampa, who controlled their own destiny and had Gruden as coach, to the terrible Oakland Raiders.

Well, we need Denver to lose to KC or Oak and/or Baltimore to lose to Chi or Oak. I think it's possible, Baltimore has been very inconsistent.

Dave W. in Las Vegas said...

Dale, Has Mike Tomlin as a head coach ever beaten the Green Bay Packers? Thank you.

Anonymous said...

Not Dale, but I'm pretty sure the answer is no as Tomlin has never faced the Packers as a head coach. I could be wrong, but I think the last time the Steelers faced the Packers was in Greenbay in 2005.

Robbie said...

I think Baltimore HAS been pretty consistent. They've generally lost tight games to the good teams they've played, and blown out the bad teams they've played. I'd be stunned if they lost to Chicago or Oakland, but anything is possible.

Anonymous said...

Let's hope that this prediction is as accurate as your others over the past month. You are quick to point out when you are right about one thing, but never point out how bad your predictions for the outcome of each game are.

Dale Lolley said...

I think I've been pretty consistent in saying this team is beyond predicting.
My overall league predictions are in the paper every week and posted on this web site. I'm still well over .500 for the season.
Haven't seen yours, though.

Steelers Depot said...

Steelers inactives
S Troy Polamalu
WR Limas Sweed
CB Keenan Lewis
QB Charlie Batch (3rd)
G Chris Kemoeatu
G Kraig Urbik
DE Ra'Shon Harris
DE Nick Eason

Packers inactives
WR Patrick Williams
FB John Kuhn
CB Brandon Underwood
S Matt Giordano
T Breno Giacomini
G Allen Barbre
DE Michael Montgomery
LB Jeremy Thompson

Anonymous said...

Have the Steelers lost every game that they activate just 5 DL?