Wednesday, April 08, 2009

First mock draft

OK, you asked for it, here it is. Remember, this will change over the next couple of weeks as more information comes in.

1. Detroit, Matthew Stafford, QB, Georgia - The Lions seem to be settling in on taking the quarterback with the first pick.

2. St. Louis, Jason Smith, OT, Baylor - The Rams have a lot of holes, but the release of Orlando Pace may have tipped their hand.

3. Kansas City, Brian Orapko, OLB, Texas - The Chiefs are going to a 3-4 defense and need pass rushers.

4. Seattle, Eugene Monroe, PT, Virginia - No need to convince the team that has had Walter Jones at LT for a decade the value of a good LT. Jones’ eventual replacement.

5. Cleveland, Aaron Curry, LB, Wake Forest - The Browns need to upgrade their front seven. Curry does everything well except rush the passer, so he’ll fit right in with the Browns.

6. Cincinnati, Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech - The Bengals are looking to trade Chad Johnson and Crabtree would soften that blow.

7. Oakland, B.J. Raji, DT. Boston College - Even if Raji did smoke some pot it wouldn’t bother the Raiders. In fact, it might increase their interest in him.

8. Jacksonville, Jeremy Maclin, WR, Missouri - The Jaguars haven’t had a playmaker at WR since Jimmy Smith retired.

9. Green Bay, Everette Brown, LB, Florida State - The Packers are shifting to a 3-4 and need guys to rush off of the edge.

10. San Francisco, Andre Smith, OT, Alabama - After signing Marvel Smith, the 49ers need some younger insurance.

11. Buffalo, Aaron Maybin, LB, Penn State – Maybin was awfully productive last season, but will be making the transition to LB.

12. Denver, Tyson Jackson, DT, LSU – The Broncos couldn’t stop anybody last season.

13. Washington, Michael Oher, OT, Mississippi – Washington’s offensive line is getting a little ragged.

14. New Orleans, Malcolm Jenkins, CB, Ohio State – The Saints were incredibly soft in the secondary last season.

15. Houston, Vontae Davis, CB, Illinois – Make this pick with the expectation that Donta Robinson won’t re-sign after this season.

16. San Diego, Rey Maualuga, LB, USC – Where else would Junior Seau Jr. go?

17. Josh Freeman, QB, Kansas State – The Jets really made this a need position. More athletic than Mark Sanchez.

18. Denver, Brian Cushing, LB, USC – The Broncos are reworking what was a bad defensive front.

19. Tampa Bay, Mark Sanchez, QB, USC – Even with Jon Gruden gone, the Bucs keep collecting QBs.

20. Detroit, Peria Jerry, DT, Mississippi – The Lions need to beef up the defensive front.

21. Philadelphia, Darius Heyward-Bey, WR, Maryland - The Eagles have been looking for a stud WR for seemingly forever.

22. Minnesota, Percy Harvin, WR, Florida – The Vikings want to upgrade their WR position and Harvin can certainly do that.

23. New England, Clay Matthews, LB, USC – Matthews fits the mold of New England linebackers.

24. Atlanta, Ziggy Hood, DT, Missouri – A big body for the front seven.

25. Miami, Alex Mack, C, California – The Dolphins are in a tough spot needing help in a lot of places.

26. Baltimore, Hakeem Nicks, WR, NC – The Ravens know that Derrick Mason is nearing the end.

27. Indianapolis, Filli Moala, DT, USC – The Colts need to beef up the interior of their defensive line.

28. Philadelphia, Beanie Wells, RB, Ohio State – The Eagles get a big back to pair with Brian Westbrook.

29. New York Giants, Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia – The Giants would have preferred one of the top WRs fall to them and like Kenny Britt of Rutgers, but they’ll settle for Moreno as a replacement for Derrick Ward.

30. Tennessee, Darius Butler, CB, Connecticut – The Titans need help in the secondary.

31. Arizona, Connor Barwin, LB, Cincinnati – Teams are intrigued by his athleticism.

32. Pittsburgh, Eric Wood, C/G, Louisville – The Steelers ignored the offensive line last year, but can’t do it again. Max Unger will also tempt them, but Wood is nastier.

22 comments:

Patrick said...

I have to be the critic here:

Fili Moala and Connor Barwin in Rd 1? I was watching the NFL Network the other day and someone mentioned they are not even sure that Barwin knows what position he is going to play. Round 1 project to AZ? I just don't see it.

I'd say Sanchex before Freeman but it almost doesn't matter, they will go close to how you have them either way.

Miami taking Mack? I never thought of that one, but the problem is they just gave Grove some serious money. Maybe at G for Mack or Grove? And I don't think Miami will pass on Nicks.

I also think the Eagles will trade up somewhere in the 1st and try to get Donald Brown via trade again in the 2nd.

And the Wood pick for Pittsburgh I've mentioned, don't love it at 32, but don't hate it.

Just me being a critic.

Viz-Burgh said...

I'm an Eric Wood fan, but I see the Steelers making a trade up in Rd. 2 to get him (moving up 10-15 picks). I think he's a mid-2nd guy.

If the draft fell the way you have it here I'd be shocked to see the Steelers pass on Eben Britton. I'd personally also have Jarron Gilbert ahead of Eric Wood with Alphonso Smith about on par with Wood, maybe a bit ahead of him.

Ev said...

KC taking Orapko= vernon gholston last year

San Fran= needs a QB

Buffalo= passing on oher= fail

Denver= too early for jackson barring a trade

Atlanta= ziggy hood= too early

Indy= fili= WAY TOO EARLY

Pitt= Wood= too early...would like to see them take sean smith

i give respect....anyone who can put a one round mock together deserves praise...good job putting it out there dale

Dale Lolley said...

There are surprises in every draft and that's what makes it fun. Just because some so-called experts say a guy isn't a first-round pick doesn't mean he isn't. Then again, what the hell do I know.

Mark my word, there will be guys who the "experts" don't think will go in the first round who do and others who won't. Happens every year.

As for some of the team picks - other than the Steelers - I haven't looked too in depth at some team needs yet.

Chad said...

Strange things do happen in the draft, but not end of the world strange. Thus, 2 centers will not be taken in the first round of the draft.

Thomas said...

I love the Eric Wood pick in the 1st. He won't make it to the mid second round...Cincinnati or Cleveland will pick him in the early second!

Dale what do you think about the Steelers drafting Sammy Lee Hill and Cornelius Lewis later in the draft?

Anonymous said...

Miami taking Mack? Miami just signed Grove long term to center the line, They've got bookend tackes signed, they LOVE thomas and Smiley at Guard.... Oline will definitely NOT be their pick.

datruth4life said...

Dale, what do you think of my mock for the Steelers? I think it addresses quite a few needs:

1 - DE Jarron Gilbert - San Jose State
2 - CB Sherrod Martin - Troy
3 - WR Mike Wallace - Missippi
4 - LT Joel Bell - Furman
5 - C A.Q. Shipley - Penn State
5 - FB/RB - Frank "The Tank" Summers
6 - NT/DT Sammie Lee Hill - Stillman
7 - DE Zach Potter - Nebraska
7 - OLB Philip Hunt - Houston

My biggest dilemma was whether to take G Louis Vasquez with my first 5th round pick rather than A.Q. Shipley, but the Steelers seem to have taken a liking to Shipley. Vasquez is a huge guard with great strength that played mostly in a pass blocking offense. He might not have the versatility that Tomlin wants in his OL, though.

OK everyone, thoughts?

Anonymous said...

dathruth - i dont like that draft at all

Ev said...

i dont understand everyone's fascination with AQ shipley. His arms are so short it very scary.

DaTruth- If Vasquez falls to the fifth, the FO needs to take him over shipley.

Dale Lolley said...

1 - DE Jarron Gilbert - San Jose State
2 - CB Sherrod Martin - Troy
3 - WR Mike Wallace - Missippi
4 - LT Joel Bell - Furman
5 - C A.Q. Shipley - Penn State
5 - FB/RB - Frank "The Tank" Summers
6 - NT/DT Sammie Lee Hill - Stillman
7 - DE Zach Potter - Nebraska
7 - OLB Philip Hunt - Houston

I don't like Gilbert at all. His production in college didn't necessarily match his workouts.

I don't think Shipley will be drafted and if he is, it won't be until the sixth or seventh. I think he'll be a priority free agent.

datruth4life said...

Dale,

If Jarron Gilbert's production in college matched his workouts, then he would be a top 5 pick and he wouldn't even be in discussion for for the no. 32 pick. Still, his numbers last year were pretty good -- 52 tackles with 30 being solos (and 22 stops for losses to lead the nation), 9.5 sacks.

My argument for selecting him is he not only plays a position of need, but he is coming to your team from day one at 6'5'', 290-lbs with that athletic ability and will be coached by probably the best 3-4 DL coach in the league. He can also learn under Aaron Smith and B. Keisel while eating up some snaps to help keep them fresh for later on in the year.

I like Woods, but you can get a center later in the draft. DL like Gilbert with this type of ability and upside don't come along very often.

Since you feel Shipley won't be drafted, then I'll replace him in my mock with Louis Vasquez out of Texas Tech. He was not only the strongest guard in the bench press at the combine, but he also ran a 40 at his pro day that is in the top 8 for guards in this draft.

Some people might look at it as a negative that Vasquez played in a spread passing offense at Texas Tech, but I don't. It is a lot easier to work on a lineman's run blocking than pass blocking (Chris K. is a good example). I don't think Ben would mind having a 6'5, 325-lb guard that already knows how to pass protect. He might be able to help make up for all of the blocks Chris K. misses in his one one pass protections.

And if the Steelers want Woods so badly, why not just trade up in the second round to get him? Centers will fall in the draft before DT's will, especially 3-4 DTs.

Thoughts?

Patrick said...

datruth,

you make good points, no doubt about that

but if the Steelers don't like Gilbert, or have their doubts, they just won't take him, unless he falls very far

I don't think they'll be as impressed by his workout numbers as we are. but who knows. I don't see it happening unless he falls to 64.

datruth4life said...

Patrick,

Good points all. I trust this front office to make the best choice at no. 32 for this football team going fwd. If its Wood, Mack, or CB Darius Butler, they have earned the benefit of the doubt.

I think they would have to trade up in the 2nd round to get either Gilbert or Fioala from USC. I think they could sit tight in the second round and still get an good OL if they addressed DL in round one.

Thoughts?

Patrick said...

I honestly don't know, it seems like after the Smith/Monroe/Smith Oher group the onlinemen drop off to Beatty, Mack, Britton, and then another drop off to Wood and Unger. After that I hear names like Vasquez and then I am lost, I don't know the draft that well or that deep to know what OL might be there at 32.

I do think this though: that it has been really popular for teams to take an olineman, especially tackles, early (Baker, Brown last year). The Steelers don't seem to care for trends though. If the Steelers take Wood at 32 I would equate that with the Patriots taking Mankins a few years ago in the same spot. No one saw him as a 1st rounder, but the Patriots liked him and it has seemed to work out. I think the Steelers will take him if Mack is gone and there are no good trade scenarios or a highly rated CB left.

I also think that the Steelers haven't drafted a DL in the first since Hampton, and you can make the argument that fat guys are easy to find, but thats just not true for our NT. While the Steelers have not had success at 3-4 ends in the later rounds (Orien Harris, McBean), I still don't see them using 32 for a 3-4 DE. Late 2nd sounds more like them.

And since I like to think ahead with the draft, since the Steelers don't play rookies often (see my thoughts about ILB as a possiblity) I also don't rule out S Louis Delmas. From what I've seen and read about this guy, he screams Steeler and we know Ryan Clark is entering his last year (unfortunately in my opinion). Give Delmas a red shirt year like Polamula had and in 2010 we have a ridiculous safety tandem. And this is where everyone says if you would take Delmas, you should take a CB, or they just don't think Delmas is a 1st rounder. I actually even think Delmas might be gone by 32, he seems to be rising.

My Rd 1 wish list:
1) Trade up for Mack, or if he's there at 32, obviously
2) a miracle happens and Oher is there (yeh right I know)
3) a miracle happens and Tyson Jackson is there ( again with the wishful thinking)
4a) Beatty
4b) Wood/Delmas/Butler/ A. Smith or S. Smith
5) (this is the Steelers lose their mind and draft a WR scenario) Percy Harvin, what can I say, I miss a guy with Randle El type of explosion and gadgets.

theres my draft tangent for the day.

Dale Lolley said...

A guy with his measureables should have dominated at his level even more than that. San Jose State doesn''t exactly play a killer schedule.

Oher scares me with his mental problems.

Tyson Jackson would be a steal at 32, as would Percy Harvin.

Patrick said...

i know they would be steals, jackson and harvin, but this is the time of year to think big and of possibilities

Mendenhall AND Sweed were considered steals too. Especially Mendenhall.

Not arguing, just saying, strange things happen on draft day, as you noted.

Anonymous said...

I'LL BET MY LEFT NUT THEY DON'T DRAFT A CENTER IN ROUND 1. ANY TAKERS?

-THE GHOST OF SEAN MAHAN

Dale Lolley said...

I wouldn't make that bet if I were you. They won't be necessarily drafting that player to be a center right away. They'll play him at guard just as they did with Dermontti Dawson.

Anonymous said...

Why would I want your left nut??

VCTMbrian said...

I really think Josh Freeman is going to end up in Denver. I think his big arm would fit nicely with Brandon Marshall and the speedy Eddie Royal.

VCTMbrian said...

Also, being a college football freak, I've been checking every possible mock draft and have seen a few with Victor "Macho" Harris falling to the Steelers in the second round. I would LOVE that pick. He played both corner positions in college and was pretty darn good. His ball skills are very good and i would really like to see him in black n gold.