Wednesday, December 15, 2010

Week 15 Playoff scenarios

Pittsburgh clinches AFC North division:

1) PIT win + BAL loss + PIT clinches strength of victory tiebreaker over BAL

Pittsburgh clinches a first-round bye:

1) PIT win + BAL loss + PIT clinches strength of victory tiebreaker over

BAL and JAC

2) PIT win + BAL loss + JAC loss or tie + PIT clinches strength of victory

tiebreaker over BAL

Pittsburgh clinches a playoff spot:

1) PIT win or tie

2) IND loss or tie + SD loss or tie

3) IND loss or tie + KC loss

There are other scenarios in which Pittsburgh may clinch a playoff spot if

it clinches the strength of victory tiebreaker over certain teams this weekend.

© Troy Polamalu earned his second consecutive AFC Defensive Player of the Week award for his efforts against the Bengals.

With his recent play, Polamalu, who got off to a hot start this season before going through a lull in the middle of the year, has forced his way into consideration for NFL Defensive Player of the Year.

21 comments:

Anonymous said...

Could you please explain how the "strength of victory" tiebreaker works?

Patrick said...

its amazing the impact one player can have. You could argue that there are 3-4 games that are losses without Troy (Atl, Buf, Balt are 3 easy examples)

That alone should be worthy of D MVP consideration.

John said...

Here is the proof - remember Houston plays Denver so at most one of these teams can only win 3 more game. If every game this week goes Baltimore's way - except for losing to the Saints and the Steelers winning - the best they can hope for is a tie in wins after Week 17.

Steelers wins (24)

Tennessee 5
Atlanta 11
Oakland 6
Cincinnatti 2

Baltimore's wins (24)

Houston 8
Denver 5
Carolina 4
Cleveland 7


So if Houston, Denver, Carolina or Cleveland lose OR if Cincinnati, Oakland, Atlanta or Tennessee win. The Steelers will clinch the strength of victory tiebreaker (pending Baltimore loses and the Steelers win).

Strength of victory is basically adding up the records of all the team's you defeated. In my numbers above I withhold teams like the Jets and Dolphins which lost to both Baltimore and Pittsburgh because it doesn't change the numbers.

adamg said...

Hmmm, kind of like Gardner points...

Skinley said...

Dale...a little off topic but do you expect Revis to shadow Wallace this Sunday or stay on one side of the field?

Dale Lolley said...

It will depend on who else wins this week, therefore increasing or decreasing the strength of schedule as another poster explained.

Actually, I expect Cromartie on Wallace - his strength is straight-line speed and his size. And Revis on Ward, where his physicality can be a factor. At least that's what I would do.

Patrick said...

Dale if it all falls into place and the Steelers have a first round bye after this weekend, how do you see the last 2 games being played?

I think we all would agree that you can't just stop playing people, but with the amount of injuries this team has and lack of depth on the o-line, a key injury could really set this team back. How much do you think Tomlin would scale things back?

Anonymous said...

way to jinx it Patrick you idiot

marc said...

i like stats and was messing around on espn this morning:

the steelers are 2-3 against teams who rank 14th or higher in the nfl in passing yards per game (falcons, ravens, saints, pats).

their remaining three games against jets, panthers, browns rank 21, 32, and 27 respectively.

of the current afc playoff teams only the pats and ravens are in the top 14. the colts and chargers are 1 and 2 respectively.

maybe we should hope the colts and chargers stay home this year.

Dale Lolley said...

I'd like the Steelers chances against either the Colts or Chargers in Pittsburgh.

Indy can't stop the run at all and can't run it themselves. If you throw the ball on every down, of course you're going to be at the top of the passing rankings.

SD is more balanced, but the Chargers' history in Pittsburgh isn't a good one - save that 1994 game. And that's ancient history.

As for how Tomlin will play the final two games if they clinch, if a guy is pretty healthy, he will play. If he's got an injury that could use rest - ie. Troy, possibly Roethlisberger and Flozell Adams - he may sit against Cleveland.

Anonymous said...

marc - here's a stat for you, the Patriots rape the Steelers. you should worry about them only

Anonymous said...

harrison has been great all year though. he should be player of the year, but would never get the accolades of course because of all the negative attention he's received.

marc said...

dale,
regarding indy, you kinda made my point. the colts don't even try to run the ball, so it doesn't really matter how good the steelers are at stopping the run. however, the colt's strength is their passing game, which happens to be the greatest weakness of the steeler's defense. which is probably why they are 2-3 against teams with better passing attacks on their schedule.

Anonymous said...

The Colts worry me little, the Bolts in Heinz only slightly more so. Both are behind a rubber-match against Baltimore, which is still a far, distant 2nd behind the big numero uno.

Greg Mercer said...

i'm hoping either the Chargers or the Ravens can knock off the Pats. i think those are the two teams that match up best vs. New England.

marc said...

of the last 15 super bowl winners, 4 had a defense rank worse than 10th in the nfl. the broncos in '98 were #11, so that leaves the saints ('09), colts ('06), and pats ('01).

the pats and saints were top ten in interceptions and fumble recoveries. so, basically their defense wasn't great at stopping teams, but they took the ball away often.

that leaves only the colts ('06) to not be in the top ten in any significant defensive category - i.e. the aberration.

of the potential afc playoff teams this year, only the steelers, ravens, jets, and chargers have top 10 defenses.

of the teams that don't have top 10 defense, only the pats are top ten in interceptions or fumble recoveries.

it will be interesting to see how it all plays out.

Greg Mercer said...

i think the Pats defensive numbers are pretty skewed. i'd like to see their stats for the last 8 games (minus the Browns game).

even more telling, though, would be the stats for the first 3 quarters of those games as teams like the Steelers piled up most of their yards/points during garbage time.

marc said...

true, and the same arguement could be said for the saints last year and the colts when they won the SB. not to mention that when the colts won the SB their defense suddenly became all world for the playoffs.

however, the stats are all encompassing for all teams, therefore each team will have numbers that are influenced one way or another by what may be considered "abnormalities." to exclude those abnormalities for one team would not be a fair comparison to all the others.

for example, in the cowher era, a second half lead meant running the ball down the other team's throat which would inherently result in less passing yards and most likely less yards overall. further, it would lead to greater time of possesion and less opportunities for the other team leading to less yards allowed for the steeler's defense. so the question begs, was the passing game under appreciated and the defense over appreciated?

regardless, at the end of the day, if your defense is not top ten, you better take the ball away to win the SB.

Anonymous said...

Marc, you may remember that Bob Sanders missed the majority of the season, but came back and strengthened that defense which played very well at the end of the season and throughout the playoffs. The defense was top-10 caliber when he played.

Anonymous said...

yeah, that colts D without sanders was BAD. I remember maurice jones drew running wild against them

marc said...

yes, i do remember. that's when their defense suddenly became all world.

but, i am sure other teams who had top 10 defenses had to deal with injuries as well.