Friday, December 17, 2010

Who I like, Jets version

If Troy Polamalu doesn't play this week - and I'm not sold that he won't - it affects my pick only in which team I think will cover the 5 1/2-point spread in this game.

The Steelers' defense should dominate New York and erratic QB Mark Sanchez.

New York will not be able to run the ball against the Steelers, forcing Sanchez, who has a propensity to try force the ball into some tight spots, to beat them.

Sanchez isn't capable of doing that.

The Steelers will likewise struggle to move the ball as well. But Sanchez will have a turnover or two that will help set up Pittsburgh's offense.

Heath Miller returning to practice Friday is also big for the Steelers. I expect Pittsburgh to use him to help beat New York's seven and eight-man blitzes with quick passes.

Take the Steelers, 17-9, if Polamalu plays.

Take the Steelers, 17-13, if he doesn't.

10 comments:

Homegrown Misanthropist said...

At which time will it be known whether Polamalu plays or he doesn't? It s a big if, and one that should directly affect the outcome of the game. La Canfora is reporting he won't, not to mean any disrespect but it wouldn't be the first time you say a player will play and he doesn't, like Roethlisberger last year, when will it be known? I simply don't think the Steelers will cover the spread, it is one of those games when 67% of the people are betting the Steelers, and when that happens either they blow it out (god forbid) or they simply win by 2 or 3 points. Personally I won't bet this game, there are to many if's, great blog!!!!

Anonymous said...

wait, you think heath's gonna play? awesome!

yes, we will need him over the middle, and hines, since the jets send so much blitzes. And our oline is not only weak against pass rushers one on one, but against blitzes they are worse

John said...

I'd believe the Steelers are waiting to see the result of the Balt/NO game to help their decision. I'm sure he'll run out there and see how it feels on Sunday, but I'd believe if NO wins and the Steelers have a chance to earn the bye, he'd gut it out knowing he'd earn 3 weeks off to rest and heal.

Dale Lolley said...

I'm not saying he's definitely going to play. I'm saying he's going to give it a go in warm-ups on Sunday and see how it feels.
And, the results of the Baltimore game could play a factor.
They don't have to announce it until an hour and a half or so before game time.

Miller practiced today, so it would appear he's ready to go, unless he suffers another setback Saturday.

marc said...

i don't see why they would rush either one of them to play. it's a short week with the thursday game and they only need to win 2 of the last 3 with one being cleveland to clinch the afc north and the #2 seed.

if there is any doubt, let them rest and be ready to go thursday, imo.

Brian said...

Troy's officially listed as doubtful. I know that listing a player as doubtful and then playing him is very much frowned upon by the league. 99% chance he won't play.

The Steelers' offense is a debacle. They need the defense to win the game for them, and without Troy they're unable to do so.

I heard Ryan Clark interviewed on the radio, and it sounded like he was having an anxiety attack. He understands that he's going to be exposed and embarrassed without Troy there to cover for him.

Likewise, LeBeau knows that his defense is worthless without Troy. Expect to see a bunch of meek three-man rushes with the CBs playing 10 yards off the WRs and the safeties 20 yards off the line of scrimmage.

No one is afraid of throwing the ball against this defense without Troy, the worst-case scenario is the ball will get batted down. Sanchez has been a dog the last few weeks, but I expect him to look like a cross between Marino and Montana on Sunday.

Anonymous said...

damn, we got a game on thursday....against the panthers? why exactly? Did anyone expect the panthers to be at all competitive this late in the year? That should have been the spot for the steelers/jets game

but whatever, I love primetime

Joe said...

There is a report on Fox Sports that Troy will be sitting for the rest of the regular season. Hope 4 weeks is enough rest for his achilles/calf.

Anonymous said...

I think Sanchez will play better than people are expecting. He's in a slump but not as terrible as the last 2 weeks. McCoy & Henne moved the ball pretty well on us (with Troy). Hopefully the most important stat -- points -- is kept low by a sack here, pass breakup there, etc.

The problem is that our offense is so bad (I'd rate it bottom five, regardless of stats, and partly because of the Starks injury) that even if the defense holds the Jets to, say, 13 points, I don't have much confidence we can block the Jets. I mean, the Pats and Bengals have no pass rush but Tully Banta-Cain looked like Lawrence Taylor against us. I think Wallace can torch Cromartie a few times, I think he's due, that's where my hopes are.

I assume it will be close, so turnovers & special teams will be huge. A Brad Smith 65-yard trick play, a runback, a sack-fumble on Ben or Sanchez, slant for a TD to Wallace, a pick, a shanked punt...

I think it's important for the Steelers offense to put some points on the board early. I think the Jets have the potential to implode if things go wrong for them early. But that's up to the Steelers offense.

I'll guess:

Jets - 19 Steelers - 14

(w/ Jets getting a defensive TD and a safety & one of the Steelers' TDs being set up goal-to-go by the defense)

joe said...

can we beat the jets, of course. will we ? with this offense i don't have much faith.
hoping the jets continue their downword slide.